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On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility

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  • Thomas J. Flavin

    (Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

  • Ekaterini Panopoulou
  • Deren Unalmis

    (Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

Abstract

We analyze the stability of domestic financial linkages between periods of calm and turbulent market conditions. Our model develops a simultaneous test of shift contagion and bi-directional pure contagion, which is applied to the equity and currency markets of a group of East Asian emerging economies. Our results show a great deal of instability in these markets with widespread evidence of pure contagion in both directions. There is less evidence of shift contagion with the transmission of common shocks unchanged between regimes for the majority of countries.

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  • Thomas J. Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Deren Unalmis, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1981108.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    • Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1981108.pdf
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    9. Khallouli, Wajih & Sandretto, René, 2012. "Testing for “Contagion” of the Subprime Crisis on the Middle East and North African Stock Markets: A Markov Switching EGARCH Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 134-166.
    10. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2016. "Contagion in International Stock and Currency Markets During Recent Crisis Episodes," Working papers 258, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    11. Flavin, Thomas J. & Morley, Ciara E. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2014. "Identifying safe haven assets for equity investors through an analysis of the stability of shock transmission," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 137-154.
    12. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano & Aminu, Abubakar Wambai, 2018. "Economic regimes and stock market performance in Nigeria: Evidence from regime switching model," MPRA Paper 91430, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Oct 2018.
    13. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2014. "Dynamic spanning trees in stock market networks: The case of Asia-Pacific," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 414(C), pages 387-402.
    14. Ahmad Sarlak & Zahra Talei, 2016. "Impact of High-Frequency Trading on the Stock Returns of Large and Small Companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 216-228, April.
    15. Dua, Pami & Tuteja, Divya, 2016. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages across international stock and currency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 249-261.
    16. Haishu Qiao & Yue Xia & Ying Li, 2016. "Can Network Linkage Effects Determine Return? Evidence from Chinese Stock Market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, June.
    17. Kara, Alper & Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim & Unalmis, Deren, 2021. "Financial contagion and the role of firm characteristics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    18. Yildirim, Ramazan & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Investigating International Portfolio Diversification Opportunities for the Asian Islamic Stock Market Investors," MPRA Paper 90281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.
    20. Doruk Kucuksarac & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2012. "Kuresel Kriz, Avrupa Borc Krizi ve Gelismekte Olan Piyasalarda Bulasicilik Etkisi (Global Crisis, European Debt Crisis and Contagion in Emerging Markets)," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(2), pages 25-35.
    21. Yildirim, Ramazan & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2014. "The Effect of Recent Financial Crisis over Global Portfolio Diversification Opportunities – Empirical Evidence A Comparative Multivariate GARCH-DCC, MODWT and Wavelet Correlation Analysis," MPRA Paper 58269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2015. "Is Loan Dollarization Contagious across Countries? Evidence from Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 200, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    23. Zobia Israr Ahmed & Khalid Mustafa, 2019. "Regime-Dependent Effects on Stock Market Return Dynamics: Evidence from SAARC Countries," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 111-132, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shift contagion; Pure contagion; Financial market crises; Regime switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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