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The dynamic relationship between stock, bond and foreign exchange markets

Listed author(s):
  • Kal, Süleyman Hilmi
  • Arslaner, Ferhat
  • Arslaner, Nuran

This paper investigates whether the deviation of a currency from its fundamentally determined rate of return affects the relationship between interest rates and stock market yields. A time-varying transition probability, the Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model, is utilized for this purpose. Wald and likelihood ratio tests are computed and used as model adequacy measures. In order to analyze the link between the variables, impulse–response functions are employed. A sticky price exchange rate model is used to show the fundamentally determined rate of return of currencies. States are defined as either overvalued or undervalued, depending on the position of the observed exchange rate compared to its fundamentally determined rate. The model is applied to four major currencies: the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. Transition between the states is linked to the risk-adjusted excess return (the Sharpe ratio) of the debt and equity markets of the respective currencies in order to understand whether over- and undervaluation is connected to the returns in these markets. The results provide evidence that the relationship between economic fundamentals and nominal exchange rates are subject to change depending on the over- or undervaluation of the currencies relative to their fundamentally determined rate of return. An extension of this result shows that the Sharpe ratios of debt and equity investments in the currencies influence the evolution of the transitional dynamics of the exchange rates’ deviation from their fundamental values.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S093936251500045X
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 39 (2015)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 592-607

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:39:y:2015:i:4:p:592-607
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.03.002
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  1. Paul De Grauwe & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2007. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: a non-linear relationship?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 37-54.
  2. Flavin, Thomas J. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Unalmis, Deren, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 280-301, December.
  3. Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
  4. Leo Michelis & Cathy Ning, 2010. "The dependence structure between the Canadian stock market and the USD/CAD exchange rate: a copula approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 43(3), pages 1016-1039, August.
  5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, 09.
  6. Kal, Süleyman Hilmi & Arslaner, Ferhat & Arslaner, Nuran, 2013. "Gold, Stock Price, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An MS VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 56406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
  8. Kal, Süleyman Hilmi & Arslaner, Ferhat & Arslaner, Nuran, 2013. "Transitional Dynamics of Oil Prices," MPRA Paper 56407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  10. Henry, Ólan T., 2009. "Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates in the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-414, February.
  11. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
  12. Ning, Cathy, 2010. "Dependence structure between the equity market and the foreign exchange market-A copula approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 743-759, September.
  13. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
  14. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
  15. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2001. "Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 477-490.
  16. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
  17. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Predicting Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  18. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  19. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
  20. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
  21. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:09:y:2006:i:08:n:s0219024906003974 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Evidence For Brazil," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(08), pages 1377-1396.
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