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The dependence structure between the Canadian stock market and the USD/CAD exchange rate: a copula approach


  • Leo Michelis
  • Cathy Ning


This paper investigates the dependence structure between the real Canadian stock returns and the real USD/CAD exchange rate returns, using the Symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC) copula function. We estimate the SJC copula with monthly data over the period 1995:1 to 2006:12. Our results show significant asymmetric static and dynamic tail dependence between the real stock returns and the real exchange rate returns, such that the two returns are more dependent in the left than in the right tail of their joint distribution. We explain this asymmetric dependence in terms of an asymmetric interest rate policy by Canadian monetary authorities in response to changes in the real exchange rate during sub-periods of falling and rising commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Leo Michelis & Cathy Ning, 2010. "The dependence structure between the Canadian stock market and the USD/CAD exchange rate: a copula approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 43(3), pages 1016-1039, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:43:y:2010:i:3:p:1016-1039

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Pierre L. Siklos, 1999. "Inflation-target design: changing inflation performance and persistence in industrial countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 46-58.
    3. Nelson C. Mark, 2009. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1047-1070, September.
    4. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2005. "Perhaps the FOMC did what it said it did : an alternative interpretation of the Great Inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. James E. Pesando, 1975. "The Impact of the Conversion Loan on the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Some Additional Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 8(2), pages 281-288, May.
    6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sun, Changyou, 2013. "On the market risk of securitized timberlands," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 110-127.
    3. Medovikov, Ivan, 2014. "Can analysts predict rallies better than crashes?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 319-325.
    4. Kal, S├╝leyman Hilmi & Arslaner, Ferhat & Arslaner, Nuran, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 592-607.
    5. Medovikov, Ivan, 2016. "When does the stock market listen to economic news? New evidence from copulas and news wires," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 27-40.
    6. Irena Vodenska & Alexander P. Becker & Di Zhou & Dror Y. Kenett & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2016. "Community Analysis of Global Financial Markets," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, May.
    7. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2016. "Downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-96.
    8. Ivan Medovikov, 2014. "When does the stock market listen to economic news? New evidence from copulas and news wires," Papers 1410.8427,
    9. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chi-Hung & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2015. "Industry co-movements of American depository receipts: Evidences from the copula approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 301-314.
    10. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:53-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:mulfin:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:92-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chiu-Lan Chang & Paul L. Hsueh, 2013. "An Investigation of the Flight-to-Quality Effect: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S4), pages 53-69, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation


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