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Diversification when It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets1

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  • John Knight
  • Colin Lizieri
  • Stephen Satchell

Abstract

This article examines claims about the diversification benefits of real estate. In particular, does real estate investment in a mixed asset portfolio provide protection when other asset classes are performing badly? Conventional portfolio strategy models utilising covariance statistics may result in a misallocation of capital if correlation structures between assets differ across the distribution of returns. Models of asymmetric dependence using the copula function, drawn from the recent finance literature are used to examine the relationships between real estate and equity at different points in their joint return distributions. For both UK and Global markets, real estate securities and common equities are shown to exhibit strong tail dependence -- particularly in the negative tail. This suggests that real estate securities offer, at best, limited diversification protection when it is needed most -- when other asset markets are falling. This has implications for allocation strategies in mixed asset portfolios. 1. Paper originally presented to the European Real Estate Society Annual Conference, Dublin, June 2005.

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  • John Knight & Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "Diversification when It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets1," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 309-323, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:22:y:2005:i:4:p:309-323
    DOI: 10.1080/09599910600558520
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    2. Leo Michelis & Cathy Ning, 2010. "The dependence structure between the Canadian stock market and the USD/CAD exchange rate: a copula approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1016-1039, August.
    3. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie, 2020. "Co-movement across european stock and real estate markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 189-208.
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    5. Hui, Eddie Chi-man & Chan, Ka Kwan Kevin, 2014. "The global financial crisis: Is there any contagion between real estate and equity markets?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 216-225.
    6. Renee Fry & Vance L. Martin & Chrismin Tang, 2008. "A New Class Of Tests Of Contagion With Applications To Real Estate Markets," CAMA Working Papers 2008-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Rakesh K. Bissoondeeal & Leonidas Tsiaras, 2023. "Investigating the Links between UK House Prices and Share Prices with Copulas," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 423-452, October.
    8. Eddie C.M. Hui & Ka Kwan Kevin Chan, 2013. "The European sovereign debt crisis: contagion across European real estate markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 87-102, June.
    9. Ponrajah, Jeremey & Ning, Cathy, 2023. "Stock–bond dependence and flight to/from quality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Shi Yafeng & Tao Xiangxing & Shi Yanlong & Zhu Nenghui & Ying Tingting & Peng Xun, 2020. "Can Technical Indicators Provide Information for Future Volatility: International Evidence," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 53-66, February.
    11. Andrey Pavlov & Eva Steiner & Susan Wachter, 2018. "The Consequences of REIT Index Membership for Return Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 46(1), pages 210-250, March.
    12. Yang Deng & Helen X. H. Bao & Pu Gong, 2018. "Increased Tail Dependence in Global Public Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 145-168.
    13. Medovikov, Ivan, 2016. "When does the stock market listen to economic news? New evidence from copulas and news wires," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 27-40.
    14. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    15. Pin-te Lin & Franz Fuerst, 2014. "The integration of direct real estate and stock markets in Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(12), pages 1323-1334, April.
    16. Shi Yafeng & Yanlong Shi & Ying Tingting, 2024. "Can technical indicators based on underlying assets help to predict implied volatility index," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 57-74, January.
    17. Martin Hoesli & Graeme Newell & Muhammad Jufri Bin Marzuki & Rose Neng Lai, 2022. "The Performance and Diversification Potential of Non-Listed Value-Add Real Estate Funds in Japan," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-16, April.
    18. Eva Steiner & Jamie Alcock, 2011. "New Evidence on asymmetric dependence in the returns from U.S. Real Estate Estate Investment Trusts," ERES eres2011_161, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    19. Jamie Alcock & Petra Andrlikova, 2018. "Asymmetric Dependence in Real Estate Investment Trusts: An Asset-Pricing Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 183-216, February.
    20. Jamie Alcock & Eva Steiner, 2018. "Fundamental Drivers of Dependence in REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 4-42, July.
    21. Walter I. Boudry & Robert A. Connolly & Eva Steiner, 2022. "What happens during flight to safety: Evidence from public and private real estate markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 147-172, March.
    22. Gene Birz & Erik Devos & Sandip Dutta & Khoa Nguyen & Desmond Tsang, 2022. "Ex-ante performance of REIT portfolios," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 995-1018, October.

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