IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/urbstu/v40y2003i5-6p1047-1064.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Appraisal Smoothing and Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets

Author

Listed:
  • David Geltner

    (MIT Center for Real Estate, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA. dgeltner@mit.edu)

  • Bryan D. MacGregor

    (Centre for Property Research, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 3QY, UK. b.d.macgregor@abdn.ac.uk)

  • Gregory M. Schwann

    (Department of Finance, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia. gschwann@ureimelb.edu.au)

Abstract

This paper reviews the literature on price determination in the private and public real estate markets. In particular, it discusses the processes of appraisal smoothing in the private market and of price discovery between the public and the private markets. In real estate markets, the absence of good quality information on price, whether because of lack of trades or confidentiality, has led to the widespread use of appraisals for market tracking and as the basis for performance measurement. Appraisers have to make an optimum assessment of value, based on fundamental variables and market information, including transactions and a market-wide appraisal index. However, transaction prices are a noisy signal and it is the appraiser's role to extract the signal from the noise in an efficient manner. This involves a process of optimal combination of past and current information and leads to appraisal smoothing. Price discovery is the process by which the opinions of market participants about the value of an asset are combined together into a single statistic—its market price. A development of this basic concept is where two markets have a common component of value and the relevant price information is discovered first in one market and then transmitted to the second market. The process of price discovery is considered between the public and private real estate markets.

Suggested Citation

  • David Geltner & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2003. "Appraisal Smoothing and Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1047-1064, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:40:y:2003:i:5-6:p:1047-1064
    DOI: 10.1080/0042098032000074317
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1080/0042098032000074317
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/0042098032000074317?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coughenour, Jay & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1999. "Symposium on Market Microstructure: A Review of Empirical Research," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1-27, November.
    2. Carmelo Giaccotto & John Clapp, 1992. "Appraisal‐Based Real Estate Returns under Alternative Market Regimes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, March.
    3. David M. Geltner, 1993. "Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 325-346.
    4. David Geltner, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation in Real Estate Return Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 141-166, June.
    5. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    6. Kluger, Brian D & Stephan, Jens, 1997. "Alternative Liquidity Measures and Stock Returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 19-36, January.
    7. Ross, Stephen A & Zisler, Randall C, 1991. "Risk and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 175-190, June.
    8. Geltner, David Michael, 1991. "Smoothing in Appraisal-Based Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 327-345, September.
    9. S. Michael Giliberto, 1990. "Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts and Real Estate Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 259-264.
    10. Diery Seck, 1996. "The Substitutability of Real Estate Assets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 75-95, March.
    11. K.W. Chau & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2001. "Price discovery in the Hong Kong real estate market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 187-216.
    12. Gerald R. Brown & George A. Matysiak, 1998. "Valuation smoothing without temporal aggregation," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 89-103, January.
    13. F.C. Neil Myer & James R. Webb, 1993. "Return Properties of Equity REITs, Common Stocks, and Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(1), pages 87-106.
    14. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns? (Revision of 18-91) (Reprint 030)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    15. Paul D. Childs & Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough, 2002. "Optimal Valuation of Noisy Real Assets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 385-414.
    16. Henry J. Munneke & Barrett A. Slade, 2001. "A Metropolitan Transaction‐Based Commercial Price Index: A Time‐Varying Parameter Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 55-84.
    17. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-146, June.
    18. Jim Clayton & David Geltner & Stanley W. Hamilton, 2001. "Smoothing in Commercial Property Valuations: Evidence from Individual Appraisals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 337-360, March.
    19. Jim Clayton & Greg MacKinnon, 2000. "Measuring and Explaining Changes in REIT Liquidity: Moving Beyond the Bid-Ask Spread," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 89-115.
    20. Richard Barkham & David Geltner, 1995. "Price Discovery in American and British Property Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 21-44, March.
    21. Daniel C. Quan & John M. Quigley, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 218-230, June.
    22. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, 1992. "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 457-485, September.
    23. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-164, September.
    24. Tsong‐Yue Lai & Ko Wang, 1998. "Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of the Story," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 511-535, September.
    25. Munneke, Henry J & Slade, Barrett A, 2000. "An Empirical Study of Sample-Selection Bias in Indices of Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 45-64, July.
    26. David Geltner, 1989. "Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal‐Based Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 463-481, December.
    27. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 1999. "The Integration of Commercial Real Estate Markets and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 483-515, September.
    28. Paul D. Childs & Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough, 2002. "Optimal Valuation of Claims on Noisy Real Assets: Theory and an Application," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 415-443.
    29. Julian Diaz & Marvin L. Wolverton, 1998. "A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 349-358, June.
    30. Geltner, David & Goetzmann, William, 2000. "Two Decades of Commercial Property Returns: A Repeated-Measures Regression-Based Version of the NCREIF Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 5-21, July.
    31. Russell Chaplin, 1997. "Unsmoothing valuation-based indices using multiple regimes," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 189-210, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Neil Crosby & Steven Devaney & Colin Lizieri & Patrick McAllister, 2018. "Can Institutional Investors Bias Real Estate Portfolio Appraisals? Evidence from the Market Downturn," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 651-667, February.
    3. Peter Öhman & Bo Söderberg & Ola Uhlin, 2011. "Accuracy of Swedish property appraisers’ forecasts of net operating income," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 103-122, November.
    4. William Mingyan Cheung & James Chicheong Lei & Desmond Tsang, 2016. "Does Property Transaction Matter in the Price Discovery of Real Estate Markets?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 27-49.
    5. Devaney, Steven & Xiao, Qin, 2017. "Cyclical co-movements of private real estate, public real estate and equity markets: A cross-continental spectrum," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 132-151.
    6. Youngha Cho & Soosung Hwang & Yong-ki Lee, 2014. "The Dynamics of Appraisal Smoothing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 497-529, June.
    7. Michael Stein, 2013. "German Real Estate Funds – Changes in Return Distributions and Portfolio Favourability," Ruhr Economic Papers 0454, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
    9. repec:zbw:rwirep:0454 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. J. Andrew Hansz, 2005. "Prior transaction price induced smoothing: testing and calibrating the Quan--Quigley model at the disaggregate level," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 321-336, April.
    11. Liis Ojamäe, 2009. "Making Choices in the Housing Market: A Social Construction of Housing Values," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 1(2).
    12. Christian Rehring & Steffen Sebastian, 2011. "Dynamics of commercial real estate asset markets, return volatility and the investment horizon," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 291-315, June.
    13. Mick Silver, 2012. "Why House Price Indexes Differ: Measurement and Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2012/125, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
    2. Deng, Yongheng & McMillen, Daniel P. & Sing, Tien Foo, 2014. "Matching indices for thinly-traded commercial real estate in Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-98.
    3. K.W. Chau & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2001. "Price discovery in the Hong Kong real estate market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 187-216.
    4. Jeff Fisher & David Geltner & Henry Pollakowski, 2007. "A Quarterly Transactions-based Index of Institutional Real Estate Investment Performance and Movements in Supply and Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-33, January.
    5. Colin Lizieri & Charles Ward, 2000. "Commercial Real Estate Return Distributions: A Review Of Literature And Empirical Evidence," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2000-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    6. Jean‐Christophe Delfim & Martin Hoesli, 2021. "Robust desmoothed real estate returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 75-105, March.
    7. J. Andrew Hansz, 2005. "Prior transaction price induced smoothing: testing and calibrating the Quan--Quigley model at the disaggregate level," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 321-336, April.
    8. David M. Geltner, 1993. "Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 325-346.
    9. Patric H. Hendershott & Thomas G. Thibodeau & Halbert C. Smith, 2009. "Evolution of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 559-598, December.
    10. William Mingyan Cheung & James Chicheong Lei & Desmond Tsang, 2016. "Does Property Transaction Matter in the Price Discovery of Real Estate Markets?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 27-49.
    11. Shaun A. Bond & Soosung Hwang & Gianluca Marcato, 2006. "An Analysis of Commercial Real Estate Returns: Is there a Smoothing Puzzle?," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2006-17, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    12. Armonat, Stefan & Pfnür, Andreas, 2002. "Basel II and the German credit crunch?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35585, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    13. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2012. "Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Securitized Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 319-338, April.
    14. John Knight & Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "Diversification when It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets1," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 309-323, December.
    15. Sampagnaro, Gabriele & Battaglia, Francesca, 2010. "Reliability and Heterogeneity of Real Estate Indexes and their Impact on the Predictability of Returns," MPRA Paper 23378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Pin-te Lin & Franz Fuerst, 2014. "The integration of direct real estate and stock markets in Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(12), pages 1323-1334, April.
    17. Mark Fitzgerald & David J. Hansen & Will McIntosh & Barrett A. Slade, 2020. "Urban Land: Price Indices, Performance, and Leading Indicators," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 396-419, April.
    18. Alain Chaney & Martin Hoesli, 2015. "Transaction-Based and Appraisal-Based Capitalization Rate Determinants," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 1-43.
    19. Jinliang Li & Robert M. Mooradian & Shiawee X. Yang, 2009. "The Information Content of the NCREIF Index," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116.
    20. Pierre-Arnaud Drouhin & Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2016. "Forward Curve Risk Factors Analysis in the UK Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 494-526, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:40:y:2003:i:5-6:p:1047-1064. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.gla.ac.uk/departments/urbanstudiesjournal .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.