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Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market

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Abstract

This paper represents an approach to recovering the underlying market value returns from observable appraisal-based index returns, without presupposing or constraining the market value returns to be unpredictable or uncorrelated across time. A structural/behavioral model is developed relating the publicly reported index returns to the underlying market returns. The procedure presented here explicitly corrects for appraisal smoothing at the disaggregate level, as well as for the aggregate index construction effects of temporal aggregation and seasonality of reappraisals. This procedure is applied to the Russell-NCREIF and Evaluation Associates Index returns to generate estimated series of market values and market returns for unsecuritized institutional-grade commercial properties in the United States.

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  • David M. Geltner, 1993. "Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 325-346.
  • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:8:n:3:1993:p:325-346
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel C. Quan & John M. Quigley, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 218-230.
    2. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    3. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, 1992. "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 457-485.
    4. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-164, September.
    5. Patric Hendershott & Edward J. Kane, 1992. "Office Market Values During the Past Decade: How Distorted Have Appraisals Been?," NBER Working Papers 4128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ross, Stephen A & Zisler, Randall C, 1991. "Risk and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 175-190, June.
    7. S. Michael Giliberto, 1990. "Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts and Real Estate Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 259-264.
    8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
    9. David Geltner, 1989. "Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal-Based Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 463-481.
    10. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns? (Revision of 18-91) (Reprint 030)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    11. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-146, June.
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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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