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The Cyclic Behavior of the National Office Market

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  • William C. Wheaton

Abstract

A review of the post WWII data on national office building construction and vacancy, reveals a recurrent ten‐twelve year cycle. Specifying and estimating a structural econometric model for these series leads to several conclusions about this commercial real estate sector. First, the office market appears to “clear” quite slowly, and long‐run expectations play an important role in market behavior. Second, supply is definitely more responsive to market conditions than demand. Finally, a six‐year forecast suggests that the current over‐supply in the market will not go away as fast as in the past.

Suggested Citation

  • William C. Wheaton, 1987. "The Cyclic Behavior of the National Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(4), pages 281-299, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:15:y:1987:i:4:p:281-299
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00433
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