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Two Decades of Commercial Property Returns: A Repeated-Measures Regression-Based Version of the NCREIF Index

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  • Geltner, David
  • Goetzmann, William

Abstract

This article documents 20 years of performance of commercial real estate in the United States using a portfolio of properties that comprise the widely followed NCREIF Property Index (NPI). We develop an extension of the repeated-measures regression (RMR) to produce an improved version of the NCREIF Index that eliminates the "stale appraisal" and seasonality problems. We use this RMR version of the index to examine the magnitude and duration of the of the crash in property values in the early 1990s. The RMR Index is also compared with the NAREIT Index, and property-type subindices are developed using a Bayesian estimator. Finally, it is also shown how the RMR can be used to estimate the average magnitude of random valuation error in commercial property valuation. Copyright 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Geltner, David & Goetzmann, William, 2000. "Two Decades of Commercial Property Returns: A Repeated-Measures Regression-Based Version of the NCREIF Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 5-21, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:21:y:2000:i:1:p:5-21
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    Cited by:

    1. Chihiro Shimizu & W. Erwin Diewert & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Estimating quality adjusted commercial property price indexes using Japanese REIT data," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 217-239, September.
    2. Jeff Fisher & David Geltner & Henry Pollakowski, 2007. "A Quarterly Transactions-based Index of Institutional Real Estate Investment Performance and Movements in Supply and Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-33, January.
    3. David Geltner & Peiling Wei & David C. Ling, 2007. "Indices for Investment Benchmarking and Return Performance Analysis in Private Real Estate," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 10(1), pages 93-118.
    4. Daniel P. McMillen, 2002. "The center restored: Chicago's residential price gradient reemerges," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-11.
    5. Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2008. "A Model of Time-on-Market and Real Estate Price Under Sequential Search with Recall," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 813-843, December.
    6. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2017. "Alternative Land Price Indexes for Commercial Properties in Tokyo," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 75, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Palmer, Karen & Walls, Margaret, 2015. "Can Benchmarking and Disclosure Laws Provide Incentives for Energy Efficiency Improvements in Buildings?," Discussion Papers dp-15-09, Resources For the Future.
    8. Sampagnaro, Gabriele & Battaglia, Francesca, 2010. "Reliability and Heterogeneity of Real Estate Indexes and their Impact on the Predictability of Returns," MPRA Paper 23378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dean Gatzlaff & Cynthia Holmes, 2013. "Estimating Transaction-Based Price Indices of Local Commercial Real Estate Markets Using Public Assessment Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 260-281, February.
    10. Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
    11. Palmer, Karen & Walls, Margaret, 2015. "Does Information Provision Shrink the Energy Efficiency Gap? A Cross-City Comparison of Commercial Building Benchmarking and Disclosure Laws," Discussion Papers dp-15-12, Resources For the Future.
    12. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:60:y:2009:i:3:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602567 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Heaney, Richard & Sriananthakumar, Sivagowry, 2012. "Time-varying correlation between stock market returns and real estate returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 583-594.
    14. Peter Chinloy & William Hardin & Zhonghua Wu, 2013. "Transaction Frequency and Commercial Property," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 640-658, November.
    15. Walter Boudry & N. Coulson & Jarl Kallberg & Crocker Liu, 2013. "On Indexing Commercial Real Estate Properties and Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 617-639, November.
    16. Jinliang Li & Robert M. Mooradian & Shiawee X. Yang, 2009. "The Information Content of the NCREIF Index," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116.
    17. Xudong An & Jeffrey D. Fisher & David Geltner, 2016. "Cash Flow Performance of Fannie Mae Multifamily Real Estate: Evidence from Repeated NOI and EGI Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 512-542, May.
    18. Deng, Yongheng & McMillen, Daniel P. & Sing, Tien Foo, 2014. "Matching indices for thinly-traded commercial real estate in Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-98.
    19. Martin Hoesli & Jon Lekander & Witold Witkiewicz, 2004. "New International Evidence on Real Estate as a Portfolio Diversifier," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(2), pages 161-206.

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