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Smoothing in Commercial Property Valuations: Evidence from Individual Appraisals

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  • Jim Clayton
  • David Geltner
  • Stanley W. Hamilton

Abstract

We explore the causes and extent of appraisal smoothing, defined as a temporal lag bias in appraisals, by analyzing how appraisers use the transaction price data available to them. We test the empirical validity of the partial adjustment model that underlies the traditional "unsmoothing" of benchmark return indexes. We reject the no-lag null hypothesis and find that the extent of bias-inducing behavior appears to vary over time in the manner suggested by rational appraisal behavior as the quantity and quality of contemporaneous transaction information changes. We find evidence that appraisers valuing the same property in consecutive periods anchor onto their previous appraised values, resulting in more lagging than first-time appraisals. An implied policy prescription is for investment managers to rotate appraisers so as not to allow the same appraisal firm to consecutively value the same property. Copyright 2001 by the American Real Estate and Urban Ecopnomics Assocaition.

Suggested Citation

  • Jim Clayton & David Geltner & Stanley W. Hamilton, 2001. "Smoothing in Commercial Property Valuations: Evidence from Individual Appraisals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 337-360.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:29:y:2001:i:3:p:337-360
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    Cited by:

    1. Chihiro Shimizu & W. Erwin Diewert & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Estimating quality adjusted commercial property price indexes using Japanese REIT data," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 217-239, September.
    2. Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
    3. Kevin Chiang, 2009. "Discovering REIT Price Discovery: A New Data Setting," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 74-91, July.
    4. Alain Chaney & Martin Hoesli, 2015. "Transaction-Based and Appraisal-Based Capitalization Rate Determinants," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 1-43.
    5. Pierre-Arnaud Drouhin & Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2016. "Forward Curve Risk Factors Analysis in the UK Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 494-526, November.
    6. Christian Weistroffer & Steffen Sebastian, 2015. "The German Open-End Fund Crisis – A Valuation Problem?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 517-548, May.
    7. Shimizu, Chihiro & Karato, Koji, 2016. "Property Price Index Theory and Estimation: A Survey," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 34, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Drouhin, Pierre-Arnaud, 2012. "Caractéristiques statistiques et dynamique de prix des produits dérivés immobiliers," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/10918 edited by Batsch, Laurent, April.
    9. Yun W. Park & Doo Won Bang, 2013. "Valuation of Brokers over Real Estate Cycles: Korean Evidence," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 16(2), pages 166-188.
    10. Shaun A. Bond & Soosung Hwang & Gianluca Marcato, 2006. "An Analysis of Commercial Real Estate Returns: Is there a Smoothing Puzzle?," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2006-17, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    11. John Knight & Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "Diversification when It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets1," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 309-323, December.
    12. Patric H. Hendershott & Thomas G. Thibodeau & Halbert C. Smith, 2009. "Evolution of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association-super-1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 559-598.
    13. Deng, Yongheng & McMillen, Daniel P. & Sing, Tien Foo, 2014. "Matching indices for thinly-traded commercial real estate in Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-98.

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