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Smoothing in Appraisal-Based Returns

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  • Geltner, David Michael

Abstract

This article presents a conceptual analysis of smoothing in the second moments of appraisal-based returns series in commercial real estate. The intent of the article is to lay the groundwork necessary for the more scientific use of appraisal-based returns time series for the purpose of inferring the true second moments. Formal smoothing models are presented together with their theoretical implications for smoothing in various second moments of interest to investment analysts. Empirical estimators for inferring true moments from appraisal-based data are described. Limited empirical findings from previous literature are also briefly discussed in the light of the theoretical findings of this study. The overall conclusion is that appraisal-based returns can be very useful in studying the risk characteristics of commercial real estate assets, provided that this type of data is corrected for smoothing as discussed in the article. Copyright 1991 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Geltner, David Michael, 1991. "Smoothing in Appraisal-Based Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 327-345, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:4:y:1991:i:3:p:327-45
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yuming Fu, 2003. "Estimating the Lagging Error in Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 75-98, March.
    2. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-164, September.
    3. Goetzmann, William Nelson, 1992. "The Accuracy of Real Estate Indices: Repeat Sale Estimators," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-53, March.
    4. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2003. "Controlling for the Impact of Variable Liquidity in Commercial Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 269-303, June.
    5. James R. Follairi, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 231-234.
    6. Geltner, David Michael, 1991. "Smoothing in Appraisal-Based Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 327-345, September.
    7. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    8. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2004. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Transaction Frequency of Institutional Commercial Real Estate Investment Property," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 239-264, June.
    9. Carmelo Giaccotto & John Clapp, 1992. "Appraisal-Based Real Estate Returns under Alternative Market Regimes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24.
    10. Clapp, John M & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 1992. "Estimating Price Trends for Residential Property: A Comparison of Repeat Sales and Assessed Value Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 357-374, December.
    11. Tsong-Yue Lai & Ko Wang, 1998. "Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of the Story," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 511-535.
    12. Munneke, Henry J & Slade, Barrett A, 2000. "An Empirical Study of Sample-Selection Bias in Indices of Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 45-64, July.
    13. David M. Geltner, 1993. "Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 325-346.
    14. Daniel C. Quan & John M. Quigley, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 218-230.
    15. David Geltner, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation in Real Estate Return Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 141-166.
    16. Geltner, David & Goetzmann, William, 2000. "Two Decades of Commercial Property Returns: A Repeated-Measures Regression-Based Version of the NCREIF Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 5-21, July.
    17. Henry J. Munneke & Barrett A. Slade, 2001. "A Metropolitan Transaction-Based Commercial Price Index: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 55-84.
    18. David Geltner & David C. Ling, 2006. "Considerations in the Design and Construction of Investment Real Estate Research Indices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(4), pages 411-444.
    19. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-146, June.
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