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When does the stock market listen to economic news? New evidence from copulas and news wires

Listed author(s):
  • Ivan Medovikov

We study association between macroeconomic news and stock market returns using the statistical theory of copulas, and a new comprehensive measure of news based on the indexing of news wires. We find the impact of economic news on equity returns to be nonlinear and asymmetric. In particular, controlling for economic conditions and surprises associated with releases of economic data, we find that the market reacts strongly and negatively to the most unfavourable macroeconomic news, but appears to largely discount the good news. This relationship persists throughout the different stages of the business cycle.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.8427
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1410.8427.

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Date of creation: Oct 2014
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1410.8427
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