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Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area: A VAR-GARCH-in-Means Analysis

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Fabio Spagnolo
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of newspaper coverage of macro news on stock returns in eight countries belonging to the euro area (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) using daily data for the period 1994-2013. The econometric analysis is based on the estimation of a VAR-GARCH-in-mean model. The results can be summarised as follows. Positive (negative) news have significant positive (negative) effects on stock returns in all cases. Their volatility has a significant impact on both stock returns and volatility; specifically, an increase in news volatility is always associated with a decrease in stock returns. Markets are particularly responsive to negative news, and the reaction is bigger in the PIIGS countries, and during the recent crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2014. "Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area: A VAR-GARCH-in-Means Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4912, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4912
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    Cited by:

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    2. Grigaliuniene, Zana & Celov, Dmitrij & Hartwell, Christopher A., 2020. "The more the Merrier? The reaction of euro area stock markets to new members," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
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    9. Vellachami, Sanggetha & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Brooks, Robert, 2023. "Risk transmission from the energy markets to the carbon market: Evidence from the recursive window approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2017. "Macro News and Commodity Returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 68-80, January.
    11. Gregori, Wildmer Daniel & Sacchi, Agnese, 2019. "Has the Grexit news affected euro area financial markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-84.
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    15. Foroutan, Parisa & Lahmiri, Salim, 2022. "The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on return-volume and return-volatility relationships in cryptocurrency markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
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    17. Cao, Zhen & Han, Liyan & Zhang, Qunzi, 2022. "Stock return predictability in China: Power of oil price trend," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macro news; volatility spillovers; VAR-GARCH-in-mean model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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