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Macro news and bond yield spreads in the euro area

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Fabio Spagnolo
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of newspaper coverage of macro news on the spread between the yield on the 10-year German Bund and on sovereign bonds in eight countries belonging to the euro area (Belgium, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain) using daily data for the period 1999–2014. The econometric analysis is based on the estimation of a VAR-GARCH model. The results can be summarized as follows. Negative news have significant positive effects on yield spreads in all GIIPS (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) countries but Italy before September 2008; markets respond more to negative news, and their reaction has increased during the recent financial crisis. News volatility has a significant impact on yield spread volatility, the effects being more pronounced in the case of negative news and bigger in the most recent crisis period, especially in the GIIPS countries. Further, the conditional correlations between yield spreads and negative news increase in absolute value during the financial crisis (especially in the GIIPS countries), indicating a higher sensitivity of the former to the latter.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2018. "Macro news and bond yield spreads in the euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 114-134, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:24:y:2018:i:2:p:114-134
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2017.1285797
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    1. Albanese, Marina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Colella, Ida & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2025. "The effects of physical and transition climate risk on stock markets: Some multi-Country evidence," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Graham Bird & Wenti Du & Eric Pentecost & Thomas Willett, 2017. "Was it different the second time? An empirical analysis of contagion during the crises in Greece 2009–15," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2530-2542, December.
    3. da Silva, Tarciso Gouveia & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Morcerf, George Augusto Noronha & de Melo Modenesi, Andre, 2022. "Effects of monetary policy news on financial assets: Evidence from Brazil on a bivariate VAR-GARCH model (2006–17)," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2017. "Macro News and Commodity Returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 68-80, January.
    5. Conterius, Simeon & Akimov, Alexandr & Su, Jen-Je & Roca, Eduardo, 2023. "Do foreign investors have a positive impact on the domestic government bonds market? A panel pooled mean group approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 863-875.
    6. Karanasos, M. & Yfanti, S., 2021. "On the Economic fundamentals behind the Dynamic Equicorrelations among Asset classes: Global evidence from Equities, Real estate, and Commodities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Boonman, Tjeerd & Litsios, Ioannis & Pilbeam, Keith & Pouliot, William, 2022. "Modelling the trade balance between the northern and southern eurozone using an intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Andrey Duván Rincón-Torres & Luisa María de la Hortúa-Pulido & Kimberly Rojas-Silva & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2023. "The Low Frequency Effect of Macroeconomic News on Colombian Government Bond Yields," Borradores de Economia 1263, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Mohsin Waheed & Zulfiqar Hyder, 2023. "What Explains the Volatility in Pakistan’s Sovereign Bond Yields?," SBP Working Paper Series 112, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    10. González, Luis Otero & Razia, Alaa & Búa, Milagros Vivel & Sestayo, Rubén Lado, 2019. "Market structure, performance, and efficiency: Evidence from the MENA banking sector," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 84-101.
    11. Yi Zhang & Long Zhou & Baoxiu Wu & Fang Liu, 2025. "Analysing the impacts of unscheduled news events on stock market contagion during the epidemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 590-601, January.
    12. Graham Bird & Wenti Du & Thomas Willett, 2017. "Behavioral Finance and Efficient Markets: What does the Euro Crisis Tell us?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 273-295, April.
    13. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2022. "Cross-border portfolio flows and news media coverage," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Pradhan, H.K. & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Dann, Susan, 2024. "Anatomy of sovereign yield behaviour using textual news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Al-Maadid, Alanoud & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2020. "The impact of business and political news on the GCC stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Yu Cai & Ran Tao, 2020. "Can Stock Investor Sentiment Be Contagious in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    17. Bruce Burton & Satish Kumar & Nitesh Pandey, 2020. "Twenty-five years of The European Journal of Finance (EJF): a retrospective analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(18), pages 1817-1841, December.
    18. Wildmer Daniel Gregori & Wildmer Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Has the Grexit news spilled over into euro area financial markets? The role of domestic political leaders, supranational executives and institutions," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 134, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    19. Gregori, Wildmer Daniel & Sacchi, Agnese, 2019. "Has the Grexit news affected euro area financial markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-84.
    20. Philipp Mohl & Gilles Mourre & Sven Langedijk & Martijn Hoogeland, 2021. "Does Media Visibility Make EU Fiscal Rules More Effective?," European Economy - Discussion Papers 155, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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