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Volatility spillovers and macroeconomic announcements: evidence from crude oil markets

Author

Listed:
  • Aymen Belgacem

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Anna Creti

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Khaled Guesmi

    (IPAG Lab - IPAG Lab - IPAG Business School)

  • Amine Lahiani

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The paper applies an event study methodologyaims to investigate the macroeconomic announcements effects on Standard&Poor's500 and oil prices. Our results provide evidence for a significant impact of the US macroeconomic news on oil prices. This impact is split into two components, namely the direct effect (common response) and indirect effect (volatility transmission). Altogether our results show that the volatility transmission is bidirectional. Not only a significant volatility transmission from the oil market to the US stock market is revealed, but also a high volatility transmission is recorded from the oil market to the stock market especially after the release of consumption indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Aymen Belgacem & Anna Creti & Khaled Guesmi & Amine Lahiani, 2015. "Volatility spillovers and macroeconomic announcements: evidence from crude oil markets," Post-Print hal-01517417, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01517417
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1011316
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    Cited by:

    1. Tariq Aziz & Ranjeeta Sadhwani & Ume Habibah & Mazin A. M. Al Janabi, 2020. "Volatility Spillover Among Equity and Commodity Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-421 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Commodity-price volatility and macroeconomic spillovers: Evidence from nine emerging markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 23-37.
    4. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2021. "Event study on the reaction of the developed and emerging stock markets to the 2019-nCoV outbreak," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 467-483.
    5. Darko B. Vuković & Senanu Dekpo-Adza & Vladislav Khmelnitskiy & Mustafa Özer, 2023. "Spillovers across the Asian OPEC+ Financial Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-23, September.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2016. "Macro news and stock returns in the Euro area: A VAR-GARCH-in-mean analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 180-188.
    7. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-510 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-604 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-511 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Omid Faseli, 2020. "The relationship between European Brent crude oil price development and the US macroeconomy," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 80-87, January.
    11. Pankaj Kumar Mahato, 2022. "An event study analysis of the impact of bonus share announcements on Nifty 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 companies," International Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance, Indian Accounting Association, Patna Branch, vol. 2(1), pages 14-30.
    12. Shi, Yujie & Wang, Liming & Ke, Jian, 2021. "Does the US-China trade war affect co-movements between US and Chinese stock markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. Akram Alkhatib & Murad Harasheh, 2018. "Performance of Exchange Traded Funds during the Brexit Referendum: An Event Study," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-12, July.
    14. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-451 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-468 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-452 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bouzgarrou, Houssam & Ftiti, Zied & Louhichi, Waël & Yousfi, Mohamed, 2023. "What can we learn about the market reaction to macroeconomic surprise? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Xiao Yukun, 2017. "The impact of international energy price on Romanian macroeconomic," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Sciendo, vol. 8(2), pages 97-105, August.
    19. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-531 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Diandian Ma & Benfu Lv & Xuerong Li & Xiuting Li & Shuqin Liu, 2023. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Policy Sentiment with Different Themes on Real Estate Market: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, January.
    21. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-553 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-412 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Yingchao Zou & Kaijian He, 2022. "Forecasting Crude Oil Risk Using a Multivariate Multiscale Convolutional Neural Network Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-11, July.
    24. Walid Bahloul & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Impact of macroeconomic news surprises and uncertainty for major economies on returns and volatility of oil futures," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 247-253.

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