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Commodity-price volatility and macroeconomic spillovers: Evidence from nine emerging markets

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  • Hegerty, Scott W.

Abstract

The recent decade has witnessed wild swings in global commodity prices, with large increases preceding the Global Financial Crisis and steep declines following the crash. Many emerging markets find themselves destabilized by these fluctuations, not only when price increases lead to currency appreciations and reduced competitiveness, but also when price decreases cause capital outflows and deteriorations in the balance of payments. This study examines the volatility processes of six major commodity prices, before applying Multivariate GARCH analysis to examine spillovers among important commodity prices and output, exchange rates, interest rates and inflation in major emerging markets. While each commodity and each country behaves differently, we find that Chile is most closely tied to the copper price, and Indonesia to oil and tin, while neighbors such as Brazil and the Philippines are less affected. Perhaps surprisingly, Russia is found to be highly insulated from fluctuations in world oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Commodity-price volatility and macroeconomic spillovers: Evidence from nine emerging markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 23-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:35:y:2016:i:c:p:23-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2015.10.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:sgh:erfinj:v:3:y:2018:i:1:p:27-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kablan, Sandrine & Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled, 2017. "Commodity price cycles and financial pressures in African commodities exporters," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 215-231.
    3. Chuku Chuku & Paul Middleditch, 2016. "Characterizing monetary and fiscal policy rules and interactions when commodity prices matter," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 222, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E., 2019. "Another look at the energy-growth nexus: New insights from MIDAS regressions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 69-84.
    5. Zhu, Yongguang & Xu, Deyi & Cheng, Jinhua & Ali, Saleem Hassan, 2018. "Estimating the impact of China's export policy on tin prices: a mode decomposition counterfactual analysis method," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 250-264.
    6. Marina Tiunova, 2019. "Commodity and Financial Cycles in Resource-based Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 38-70, September.
    7. Xu Zhang & Xiaoxing Liu & Jianqin Hang & Dengbao Yao, 2018. "The dynamic causality between commodity prices, inflation and output in China: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 407-425, January.
    8. Afees A. Salisu & Idris Adediran, 2018. "US shale oil and the behaviour of commodity prices," Working Papers 047, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    9. de Souza Ramser, Claudia Aline & Souza, Adriano Mendonça & Souza, Francisca Mendonça & da Veiga, Claudimar Pereira & da Silva, Wesley Vieira, 2019. "The importance of principal components in studying mineral prices using vector autoregressive models: Evidence from the Brazilian economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 9-21.
    10. Khalifa, Ahmed A.A. & Otranto, Edoardo & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2016. "Volatility transmission across currencies and commodities with US uncertainty measures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 63-83.
    11. repec:rfe:zbefri:v:36:y:2018:i:1:p:29-53 is not listed on IDEAS

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