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Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africa's capital account liberalization

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  • Arezki, Rabah
  • Dumitrescu, Elena
  • Freytag, Andreas
  • Quintyn, Marc

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the South African Rand and the gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1979–2010. Our main finding is that prior to capital account liberalization the causality runs from the South African Rand to the gold price volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. This finding suggests that gold price volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of speculative (short-run) inflows that South Africa has been coping with since the opening up of its capital account.

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  • Arezki, Rabah & Dumitrescu, Elena & Freytag, Andreas & Quintyn, Marc, 2014. "Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africa's capital account liberalization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 96-105.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:19:y:2014:i:c:p:96-105
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2014.01.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Stan Du Plessis & Monique Brigitte Reid, 2015. "The Exchange Rate Dimension of Inflation Targeting: Target Levels and Currency Volatility," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(2), pages 174-179, June.
    2. Nasha Maveé & Roberto Perrelli & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2016. "Surprise, Surprise; What Drives the Rand / U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 16/205, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Wesseh, Presley K. & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Exchange rate fluctuations, oil price shocks and economic growth in a small net-importing economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 402-407.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
    5. Themba Mbangata & Ogujiuba Kanayo, 2017. "A Review of the Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks adopted by the BRICS countries (2000–2015)," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(3), pages 202-211.
    6. Andre Nassif & Carmem Aparecida Feijo & Eliane Araújo, 2016. "Structural change, catching up and falling behind in the BRICS: A comparative analysis based on trade pattern and Thirlwall’s Law," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 69(279), pages 373-421.
    7. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2013. "Exchange rate uncertainty and export performance: what meta-analysis reveals?," MPRA Paper 49249, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2013.
    8. Léleng KEBALO, 2016. "What DCC-GARCH model tell us about the effect of the gold price’s volatility on south african exchange rate?," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 570-582, December.
    9. M. Tiunova G. & М. Тиунова Г., 2018. "Влияние Внешних Шоков На Российскую Экономику // The Impact Of External Shocks On The Russian Economy," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(4), pages 146-170.
    10. Afees A. Salisu & Wasiu Adekunle & Zachariah Emmanuel & Wasiu A. Alimi, 2018. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: The role of structural breaks and asymmetries," Working Papers 055, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    11. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "Exchange volatility and trade performance in Morocco and Tunisia: what have we learned so far?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 244-274, November.
    12. Kebalo, Leleng, 2016. "South african exchange rate after 2000s: an econometric investigation," MPRA Paper 72440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Adibi, Nabiollah & Ataee-pour, Majid, 2015. "Decreasing minerals׳ revenue risk by diversification of mineral production in mineral rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 121-129.
    15. Duncan, Andrew S. & Kabundi, Alain, 2013. "Domestic and foreign sources of volatility spillover to South African asset classes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 566-573.
    16. Lu, Xinsheng & Li, Jianfeng & Zhou, Ying & Qian, Yubo, 2017. "Cross-correlations between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 168-182.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Volatility; Commodities; Financial flows;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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