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Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africa's capital account liberalization

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  • Arezki, Rabah
  • Dumitrescu, Elena
  • Freytag, Andreas
  • Quintyn, Marc

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the South African Rand and the gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1979–2010. Our main finding is that prior to capital account liberalization the causality runs from the South African Rand to the gold price volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. This finding suggests that gold price volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of speculative (short-run) inflows that South Africa has been coping with since the opening up of its capital account.

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  • Arezki, Rabah & Dumitrescu, Elena & Freytag, Andreas & Quintyn, Marc, 2014. "Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africa's capital account liberalization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 96-105.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:19:y:2014:i:c:p:96-105
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2014.01.001
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    2. Wesseh, Presley K. & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Exchange rate fluctuations, oil price shocks and economic growth in a small net-importing economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 402-407.
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
    4. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2022. "The impact of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance and the role of real interest rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1375-1402, September.
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    7. Florence Oluremi Okeowo & Rafiu Adewale Aregbeshola, 2018. "Trade Liberalization and Performance of the Nigerian Textile Industry," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(2), pages 33-47.
    8. Léleng KEBALO, 2016. "What DCC-GARCH model tell us about the effect of the gold price’s volatility on south african exchange rate?," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 570-582, December.
    9. M. Tiunova G. & М. Тиунова Г., 2018. "Влияние Внешних Шоков На Российскую Экономику // The Impact Of External Shocks On The Russian Economy," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(4), pages 146-170.
    10. Afees A. Salisu & Wasiu Adekunle & Zachariah Emmanuel & Wasiu A. Alimi, 2018. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: The role of structural breaks and asymmetries," Working Papers 055, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    11. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Commodity price volatility, fiscal balance and real interest rate," CAMA Working Papers 2020-79, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "Exchange volatility and trade performance in Morocco and Tunisia: what have we learned so far?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 244-274, November.
    13. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2021. "Risk and Return Spillovers in a Global Model of the Foreign Exchange Network," Working Papers 11014, South African Reserve Bank.
    14. Percy Mkhosi & Ismail Fasanya, 2022. "Revisiting Interest Rate – Exchange Rate Dynamics in South Africa: How Relevant is Pandemic Uncertainties?," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 69(3), pages 435-457, September.
    15. Debasish Roy & Ramaprasad Bhar, 2020. "Trend of Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate in Australian Economy: Time Varying Parameter Model Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(3), pages 427-437, September.
    16. Nasha Maveé & Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2016. "Surprise, Surprise: What Drives the Rand / U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 2016/205, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Kebalo, Leleng, 2016. "South african exchange rate after 2000s: an econometric investigation," MPRA Paper 72440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Abimelech Paye Gbatu & Zhen Wang & Presley K. Wesseh Jr. & Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, 2017. "Causal Effects and Dynamic Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Development in Liberia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 119-131.
    19. Trust R. Mpofu, 2021. "The determinants of real exchange rate volatility in South Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1380-1401, May.
    20. Adibi, Nabiollah & Ataee-pour, Majid, 2015. "Decreasing minerals׳ revenue risk by diversification of mineral production in mineral rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 121-129.
    21. Duncan, Andrew S. & Kabundi, Alain, 2013. "Domestic and foreign sources of volatility spillover to South African asset classes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 566-573.
    22. Charteris, Ailie & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Feedback trading in retail-dominated assets: Evidence from the gold bullion coin market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    23. Lu, Xinsheng & Li, Jianfeng & Zhou, Ying & Qian, Yubo, 2017. "Cross-correlations between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 168-182.
    24. Saeed Rasekhi & Zahra Mila Elmi & Milad Shahrazi, 2016. "Price Bubbles Spillover among Asset Markets: Evidence from Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(4), pages 501-523, Autumn.
    25. Leleng KEBALO, 2016. "South African Exchange Rate After 2000s: An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 459-481, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Volatility; Commodities; Financial flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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