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Real exchanges rates in commodity producing countries: A reappraisal

Author

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  • Bodart, V.
  • Candelon, B.
  • Carpantier, J.-F.

Abstract

Commodity price booms, as those recorded in the last decade, may have a significant economic impact in small, commodity exporting, developing countries. Whether the impact on output is positive or negative is still unclear. It depends on various factors, notably on the impact that commodity prices can have on the real exchange rate of the commodity exporting countries. Two recent papers show that the real exchange rate appreciates when commodity prices increase. Our analysis produces new estimates of this relationship by focusing on a large sample of developing countries which are specialized in the export of one leading commodity. By using non-stationary panel techniques robust to cross-sectional dependence, we find that the price of the dominant commodity has a significant long-run impact on the real exchange rate when the exports of the leading commodity have a share of at least 20 percent in the country's total exports of merchandises. Our results also show that the larger this share, the larger the size of the impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Bodart, V. & Candelon, B. & Carpantier, J.-F., 2012. "Real exchanges rates in commodity producing countries: A reappraisal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1482-1502.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:1482-1502
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.02.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Arezki, Rabah & Dumitrescu, Elena & Freytag, Andreas & Quintyn, Marc, 2014. "Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africa's capital account liberalization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 96-105.
    2. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joets & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuation in diversified economies: The case of Canada," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    3. repec:eee:inteco:v:152:y:2017:i:c:p:63-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2015. "On the impact of volatility on the real exchange rate – terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 110-127.
    5. Michel Beine & Serge Coulombe & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2015. "Dutch Disease and the Mitigation Effect of Migration: Evidence from Canadian Provinces," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(589), pages 1574-1615, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity producers; Commodity prices; Natural resource curse; Non-stationary panel; Real exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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