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Commodity Export Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: Coffee in Colombia

In: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

In this paper a model that analyzes the interaction between changes in commodity export prices, money creation, inflation, and the real exchange rate in a developing country is developed. The model is then tested using data for Colombia. A number of experts have argued that the fluctuations of Colombia's real exchange rate have been mainly determined by world coffee price changes, with more observers emphasizing the consequences of coffee price changes on money creation and inflation. The results obtained indicate that coffee price changes have indeed been closely related to money creation and inflation. Also, coffee price changes have been negatively related to the rate of devaluation of the crawling peg. These results indicate that in Colombia, the real appreciation resulting from coffee price increases has been accommodated, partially by money creation and partially by an adjustment in the nominal exchange rate.
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Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 1986. "Commodity Export Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: Coffee in Colombia," NBER Chapters,in: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, pages 233-266 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:7675
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. José Antonio Ocampo, 1983. "En defensa de la continuidad del régimen cambiario," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, vol. 13(1), pages 198-214, March.
    2. Harberger, Arnold C., 1983. "Dutch disease -- how much sickness, how much boon?," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Edwards, Sebastian & Aoki, Masanao, 1983. "Oil export boom and Dutch-disease : A dynamic analysis," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 219-242, September.
    4. Neary, J Peter & van Wijnbergen, S, 1984. "Can an Oil Discovery Lead to a Recession? A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 390-395, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sven Wunder, 1992. "La enfermedad holandesa y el caso colombiano," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, vol. 22(1), pages 167-190, April.
    2. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    3. Milas, Costas & Otero, Jesus, 2003. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 165-179, January.
    4. Jesus Otero & Costas Milas, 2000. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach (Corrected version)," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 003232, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
    5. Otero, Jesus G., 2000. "Coffee, economic fluctuations and stabilisation: an intertemporal disequilibrium model with capital market imperfections," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 105-129, June.
    6. Suresh Ramakrishnan & Shamaila Butt & Melati Ahmad Anuar, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic, Oil Prices and Socio-economic Factors on Exchange Rate in Pakistan: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 489-499.
    7. Forbes, Kristin J., 2002. "Cheap labor meets costly capital: the impact of devaluations on commodity firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 335-365, December.
    8. Khiabani, Nasser, 2015. "Oil inflows and housing market fluctuations in an oil-exporting country: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-76.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country; The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 03/93, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Holden, Ken, 2002. "The crisis of the CFA Franc zone: the case of Cote d'Ivoire," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 531-564, August.
    11. Brooks, Chris & Reveiz, Alejandro H., 2002. "A model for exchange rates with crawling bands--an application to the Colombian peso," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 483-503.

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