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Macro policy responses to natural resource windfalls and the crash in commodity prices

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  • Frederick van der Ploeg

Abstract

Policy prescriptions for managing natural resource windfalls are based on the permanent income hypothesis: none of the windfall is invested at home and saving in an intergenerational SWF is dictated by smoothing consumption across different generations. Furthermore, with Dutch disease effects the optimal response is to intertemporally smooth the real exchange rate, smooth public and private consumption, and limit sharp fluctuations in the intersectoral allocation of production factors. We show that these prescriptions need to be modified for the following reasons. First, to cope with volatile commodity prices precautionary buffers should be put in a stabilisation fund. Second, with imperfect access to capital markets the windfall must be used to curb capital scarcity, invest domestically and bring consumption forward. Third, with real wage rigidity consumption must also be brought forward to mitigate transient unemployment. Fourth, the real exchange rate has to temporarily appreciate to signal the need to invest in the domestic economy to gradually improve the ability to absorb the extra spending from the windfall. Fifth, with finite lives the timing of handing back the windfall to the private sector matters and consumption and the real exchange rate will be volatile. Finally, with nominal wage rigidity we show that a Taylor rule is a better short-run response to a crash in commodity prices than a nominal exchange rate peg.

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  • Frederick van der Ploeg, 2017. "Macro policy responses to natural resource windfalls and the crash in commodity prices," BIS Working Papers 616, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:616
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    3. Ivan Khotulev & Konstantin Styrin, 2020. "Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies for Financial Stability in a Commodity-Exporting Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(2), pages 3-42, June.
    4. Bergholt, Drago & Røisland, Øistein & Sveen, Tommy & Torvik, Ragnar, 2023. "Monetary policy when export revenues drop," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Claudio Borio & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "Is Monetary Policy Less Effective When Interest Rates Are Persistently Low?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Troug, Haytem, 2020. "The heterogeneity among commodity-rich economies: Beyond the prices of commodities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    8. Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein & Karimzadeh, Salim, 2021. "Inflow and Outflow of Oil Revenues: Scenarios for National Development Fund of Iran(NDFI)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 25(4), pages 655-676.
    9. Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev & Ling Zhu, 2019. "Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2019/108, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Sylwia Bialek & Alfons J. Weichenrieder, 2022. "Should the global community welcome new oil discoveries?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 255-278, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dutch disease; permanent income; volatility; capital scarcity; domestic investment; absorption constraints; overlapping generations; nominal wage rigidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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