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Absorbing A Windfall of Foreign Exchange: Dutch disease dynamics

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  • van der Ploeg, Frederick
  • Venables, Anthony J

Abstract

The response of an economy to a windfall of foreign exchange (be it aid or natural resource revenues) is often constrained by absorptive capacity. We provide a micro-founded analysis of absorption constraints, based on the idea that expanding the economy’s capital stock (in aggregate or sectorally) requires non-traded inputs, the supply of which is constrained by the initial capital stock. Given this constraint, the economy will manifest ‘Dutch disease’ symptoms, although many of them are temporary. On impact there is sharp appreciation of the real exchange rate, which will then depreciate back to its equilibrium level. In contrast to the permanent income hypothesis, real consumption jumps part of the way to its new long-run level, and then continues to rise. Depending on the capital-intensity of the investments needed for the adjustment, the economy may run a current account deficit or surplus in early years

Suggested Citation

  • van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J, 2010. "Absorbing A Windfall of Foreign Exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8086, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8086
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberola, Enrique & Benigno, Gianluca, 2017. "Revisiting the commodity curse: A financial perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 87-106.
    2. Carter, Patrick, 2014. "Aid allocation rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 132-151.
    3. repec:eee:deveco:v:132:y:2018:i:c:p:102-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Li, Bin Grace & Gupta, Pranav & Yu, Jiangyan, 2017. "From natural resource boom to sustainable economic growth: Lessons from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 7-25.
    5. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2016. "Optimal fiscal management of commodity price shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 183-196.
    6. Kverndokk, Snorre & Nævdal, Eric & Nøstbakken, Linda, 2014. "The trade-off between intra- and intergenerational equity in climate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 40-58.
    7. Carter, Patrick & Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Temple, Jonathan, 2015. "Dynamic aid allocation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 291-304.
    8. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    9. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2006. "Challenges and Opportunities for Resource Rich Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Frederick Ploeg, 2012. "Bottlenecks in ramping up public investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 509-538, August.
    11. Behzadan, Nazanin & Chisik, Richard & Onder, Harun & Battaile, Bill, 2017. "Does inequality drive the Dutch disease? Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 104-118.
    12. Gerelmaa, Lkhagva & Kotani, Koji, 2016. "Further investigation of natural resources and economic growth: Do natural resources depress economic growth?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 312-321.
    13. Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw Stefanski & Gerhard Toews, 2016. "Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real exchange rate appreciation," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 201608, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews, revised 21 May 2016.
    14. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2016. "Too much and too fast? Public investment scaling-up and absorptive capacity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 17-31.
    15. Malova, Aleksandra & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 27-40.
    16. repec:eee:jmacro:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:332-352 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," AMSE Working Papers 1540, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 02 Oct 2015.
    18. Richard Chisik & Bill Battaile & Harun Onder, 2014. "Services, Inequality, and the Dutch Disease," Working Papers 041, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    19. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," Working Papers halshs-01211506, HAL.
    20. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    21. Agenor, P.-R., 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and the Macroeconomic Dynamics of Small Indebted Economies," Princeton Studies in International Economics 82, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    22. Ansari, Dawud, 2016. "Resource curse contagion in the case of Yemen," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 444-454.
    23. Bahar, Dany & Santos, Miguel A., 2018. "One more resource curse: Dutch disease and export concentration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 102-114.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    absorption constraints; absorptive capacity; aid; Dutch disease; natural resources; windfall;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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