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Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics

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  • van der Ploeg, Frederick
  • Venables, Anthony J.

Abstract

The permanent income rule is seldom the optimal response to a windfall of foreign exchange, such as that from a resource discovery. Absorptive capacity constraints require domestic investment, and investment in structures requires non-traded inputs the supply of which is constrained by the initial capital stock. This, particularly when combined with intra-sectoral capital immobility, delays adjustment and creates short run ‘Dutch disease’ symptoms as the real exchange rate sharply appreciates and overshoots its long run value. Optimal revenue management requires investing in the domestic non-traded goods sector and a slow build up of consumption. Accumulation of foreign assets adjusts to accommodate the time-paths of domestic consumption and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J., 2013. "Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 229-243.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:103:y:2013:i:c:p:229-243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.03.001
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    2. Carter, Patrick, 2014. "Aid allocation rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 132-151.
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    4. Li, Bin Grace & Gupta, Pranav & Yu, Jiangyan, 2017. "From natural resource boom to sustainable economic growth: Lessons from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 7-25.
    5. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2016. "Optimal fiscal management of commodity price shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 183-196.
    6. Kverndokk, Snorre & Nævdal, Eric & Nøstbakken, Linda, 2014. "The trade-off between intra- and intergenerational equity in climate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 40-58.
    7. Carter, Patrick & Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Temple, Jonathan, 2015. "Dynamic aid allocation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 291-304.
    8. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    9. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2006. "Challenges and Opportunities for Resource Rich Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Frederick Ploeg, 2012. "Bottlenecks in ramping up public investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 509-538, August.
    11. Behzadan, Nazanin & Chisik, Richard & Onder, Harun & Battaile, Bill, 2017. "Does inequality drive the Dutch disease? Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 104-118.
    12. Gerelmaa, Lkhagva & Kotani, Koji, 2016. "Further investigation of natural resources and economic growth: Do natural resources depress economic growth?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 312-321.
    13. Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw Stefanski & Gerhard Toews, 2016. "Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real exchange rate appreciation," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 201608, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews, revised 21 May 2016.
    14. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2016. "Too much and too fast? Public investment scaling-up and absorptive capacity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 17-31.
    15. Malova, Aleksandra & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 27-40.
    16. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," AMSE Working Papers 1540, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 02 Oct 2015.
    17. Richard Chisik & Bill Battaile & Harun Onder, 2014. "Services, Inequality, and the Dutch Disease," Working Papers 041, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    18. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," Working Papers halshs-01211506, HAL.
    19. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    20. Agenor, P.-R., 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and the Macroeconomic Dynamics of Small Indebted Economies," Princeton Studies in International Economics 82, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    21. Ansari, Dawud, 2016. "Resource curse contagion in the case of Yemen," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 444-454.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Absorptive capacity; Absorption constraints; Irreversible investment; Windfall; Natural resources; Dutch disease; Economic development;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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