IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v52y2016ipbp630-649.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Debt sustainability, public investment, and natural resources in developing countries: The DIGNAR model

Author

Listed:
  • Melina, Giovanni
  • Yang, Shu-Chun S.
  • Zanna, Luis-Felipe

Abstract

Policymakers in resource-rich developing countries often face complicated fiscal choices to manage natural resource revenues. While investing resource revenues in public capital may promote economic growth, spending without saving or borrowing against future revenues can expose the economy to debt sustainability risks. This paper presents the Debt, Investment, Growth, and Natural Resources (DIGNAR) model for analyzing the macroeconomic and debt sustainability effects of scaling up public investment in resource-rich developing countries. It captures pervasive problems of these countries that may be aggravated during scaling-ups, including investment inefficiency and limited absorptive capacity. It also allows for flexible fiscal specifications: investment can be jointly financed by resource revenues and debt; a resource fund may be used as a buffer; and distorting fiscal adjustments are subject to feasibility constraints. The application to an average low-income country shows that, when fiscal adjustment is implementable, a delinked public investment approach combined with the resource fund – such that government spending is a-cyclical with respect to resource revenues – can reduce macroeconomic instability relative to a spend-as-you-go approach. However, even with the fund, ambitious frontloading public investment plans combined with more borrowing can induce debt sustainability risks, especially with declining investment efficiency or when future resource revenues turn out to be lower than expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Melina, Giovanni & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Debt sustainability, public investment, and natural resources in developing countries: The DIGNAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 630-649.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:52:y:2016:i:pb:p:630-649
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999315002898
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stokke, Hildegunn E., 2008. "Resource boom, productivity growth and real exchange rate dynamics -- A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 148-160, January.
    2. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
    3. Andrew Berg & Edward F. Buffie & Catherine Pattillo & Rafael Portillo & Andrea F. Presbitero & Luis‐Felipe Zanna, 2019. "Some Misconceptions About Public Investment Efficiency and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(342), pages 409-430, April.
    4. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    5. Charles R. Hulten, 1996. "Infrastructure Capital and Economic Growth: How Well You Use It May Be More Important Than How Much You Have," NBER Working Papers 5847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    7. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    8. Andrea Ferrero & Martin Seneca, 2019. "Notes on the Underground: Monetary Policy in Resource‐Rich Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(4), pages 953-976, June.
    9. Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2010. "Aggressive Oil Extraction and Precautionary Saving: Coping with Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 3038, CESifo.
    10. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Why do many resource-rich countries have negative genuine saving?: Anticipation of better times or rapacious rent seeking," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 28-44, January.
    11. Frederick Ploeg, 2012. "Bottlenecks in ramping up public investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 509-538, August.
    12. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) Is Not Capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 361-384, December.
    13. Era Dabla-Norris & Jim Brumby & Annette Kyobe & Zac Mills & Chris Papageorgiou, 2012. "Investing in public investment: an index of public investment efficiency," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 235-266, September.
    14. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Aggressive oil extraction and precautionary saving: Coping with volatility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(5-6), pages 421-433, June.
    15. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
    16. Johri, Alok & Lahiri, Amartya, 2008. "Persistent real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 223-236, December.
    17. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    18. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2006. "Aid and the Supply Side: Public Investment, Export Performance, and Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(2), pages 261-290.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    20. Satti, Saqlain Latif & Farooq, Abdul & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "Empirical evidence on the resource curse hypothesis in oil abundant economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 421-429.
    21. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
    22. Mehrara, Mohsen & Oskoui, Kamran Niki, 2007. "The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: A comparative study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 365-379, May.
    23. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    24. Yongsung Chang & Joao F. Gomes & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Learning-by-Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1498-1520, December.
    25. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-185, March.
    26. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Cooper, Russell & Johri, Alok, 2002. "Learning-by-doing and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1539-1566, November.
    28. Rafael A Portillo & Andrew Berg & Jan Gottschalk & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios," IMF Working Papers 10/160, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    30. Ton S van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2013. "Managing and Harnessing Volatile Oil Windfalls," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 130-167, April.
    31. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1648 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Andrew Berg & Rafael A Portillo & Edward F Buffie & Catherine A Pattillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability; Putting together the Pieces," IMF Working Papers 12/144, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Arestoff, Florence & Hurlin, Christophe, 2006. "Estimates of government net capital stocks for 26 developing countries, 1970-2002," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3858, The World Bank.
    34. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    35. Gros, Daniel & Mayer, Thomas, 2012. "A Sovereign Wealth Fund to Lift Germany’s Curse of Excess Savings," CEPS Papers 7229, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    36. Anthony Venables, 2010. "Resource rents; when to spend and how to save," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(4), pages 340-356, August.
    37. Rioja, Felix K., 2003. "Filling potholes: macroeconomic effects of maintenance versus new investments in public infrastructure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2281-2304, September.
    38. Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & Shu-Chun S Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2013. "Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 92-129, April.
    39. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    40. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    41. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Ramirez, Maria Teresa, 2003. "Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 443-477, April.
    42. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    43. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    44. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
    45. Corinne C Delechat & John W Clark JR & Pranav Gupta & Malangu Kabedi-Mbuyi & Mesmin Koulet-Vickot & Carla Macario & Toomas Orav & Manuel Rosales Torres & Rene Tapsoba & Dmitry Zhdankin & Susan S. Yang, 2015. "Harnessing Resource Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States," IMF Working Papers 15/25, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
    47. Paul Collier & Rick Van Der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2010. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 84-118, April.
    48. Dizaji, Sajjad Faraji, 2014. "The effects of oil shocks on government expenditures and government revenues nexus (with an application to Iran's sanctions)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 299-313.
    49. Andrew M. Warner, 2014. "Public Investment as an Engine of Growth," IMF Working Papers 14/148, International Monetary Fund.
    50. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
    51. Peter Hjertholm, 2003. "Theoretical and empirical foundations of HIPC debt sustainability targets," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 67-100.
    52. Christopher S Adam & David Bevan, 2014. "Public Investment, Public Finance, and Growth; The Impact of Distortionary Taxation, Recurrent Costs, and Incomplete Appropriability," IMF Working Papers 14/73, International Monetary Fund.
    53. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
    54. Ali, Issa & Harvie, Charles, 2013. "Oil and economic development: Libya in the post-Gaddafi era," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 273-285.
    55. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Klapper, Leora, 2012. "Measuring financial inclusion : the Global Findex Database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6025, The World Bank.
    56. Andrea Ferrero & Martin Seneca, 2015. "Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Economies," OxCarre Working Papers 158, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adam, Christopher & Bevan, David, 2020. "Tropical cyclones and post-disaster reconstruction of public infrastructure in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 82-99.
    2. Sadik-Zada, Elkhan Richard & Gatto, Andrea, 2019. "Determinants of the Public Debt and the Role of the Natural Resources: a Cross-Country Analysis," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 285026, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Muhanji, Stella & Ojah, Kalu & Soumaré, Issouf, 2019. "How do natural resource endowment and institutional quality influence the nexus between external indebtedness and welfare in Africa?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 77-98.
    4. Giovanni Melina & Hoda Selim & Concepcion Verdugo-Yepes, 2019. "Macro-Fiscal Gains from Anti-Corruption Reforms in the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 19/121, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Li, Bin Grace & Gupta, Pranav & Yu, Jiangyan, 2017. "From natural resource boom to sustainable economic growth: Lessons from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 7-25.
    6. Sayadi, Mohammad & Khoshkalam Khosroshahi, Musa, 2020. "Assessing Alternative Investment Policies in a Resource-Rich Capital-Scarce Country: Results from a DSGE analysis for Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Obadia Kyetuza Bishoge & Benatus Norbert Mvile, 2020. "The “resource curse” from the oil and natural gas sector: how can Tanzania avoid it in reality?," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(3), pages 389-404, October.
    8. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2016. "Is Public Debt a Burden for India?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(2), pages 184-201, June.
    9. Chuku Chuku & Jacob Oduor & Anthony Simpasa & Peter Mwanakatwe, 2019. "Working Paper 318 - A DGE Model for Growth and Development Planning: Malawi," Working Paper Series 2444, African Development Bank.
    10. Arthelo P. PALMA, 2016. "Truth Behind Economic Performance, Natural Resources and Attracting Foreign Direct Investment," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 4(2), pages 68-77.
    11. Hur, Joonyoung & Lee, Kang Koo, 2017. "Fiscal financing and the efficacy of fiscal policy in Korea: An empirical assessment with comparison to the U.S. evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 473-486.
    12. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2019. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in Nigeria: Some Insights from an Estimated DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Danijela DURKALIĆ & Mihailo ĆURČIĆ, 2019. "Comparative analysis of debt sustainability of EU countries and EU candidates: the Promethee-Gaia approach," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 67-92, June.
    14. Coccia, Mario, 2017. "Asymmetric paths of public debts and of general government deficits across countries within and outside the European monetary unification and economic policy of debt dissolution," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 17-31.
    15. Yehenew Endegnanew & Dawit Tessema, 2019. "Public Investment in Bolivia: Prospects and Implications," IMF Working Papers 19/151, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Lacina Balma & Daniel Gurara & Mthuli Ncube, 2019. "Working Paper 320 - Hands Off Oil Revenues? Public Investment and Cash Transfers," Working Paper Series 2446, African Development Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:52:y:2016:i:pb:p:630-649. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.