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Notes on the Underground: Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Economies

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How should monetary policy respond to a commodity price shock in a resource-rich economy? We study optimal monetary policy in a simple model of an oil exporting economy to provide a first answer to this question. The central bank faces a trade-off between the stabilization of domestic inflation and an appropriately defined output gap as in the reference New Keynesian model. But the welfare-relevant output gap depends on oil technology, and the weight on output stabilization is increasing in the size of the oil sector. Given substantial spillovers to the rest of the economy, optimal policy therefore calls for a reduction of the interest rate following a drop in the oil price in our model. In contrast, a central bank with a mandate to stabilize consumer price inflation may raise interest rates to limit the inflationary impact of an exchange rate depreciation.

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  • Andrea Ferrero & Martin Seneca, 2015. "Notes on the Underground: Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Economies," Working Paper 2015/02, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2015_02
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    Cited by:

    1. Ortiz, Marco & Herrera, Gerardo & Perez, Fernando, 2022. "The shine beneath: foreign exchange intervention in resource-rich economies," MPRA Paper 116208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Omotosho, Babatunde Samson, 2022. "Oil price shocks and monetary policy in resource-rich economies: Does capital matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Bergholt, Drago & Røisland, Øistein & Sveen, Tommy & Torvik, Ragnar, 2023. "Monetary policy when export revenues drop," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Algozhina, Aliya, 2022. "Monetary policy rule, exchange rate regime, and fiscal policy cyclicality in a developing oil economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Macro policy responses to natural resource windfalls and the crash in commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 263-282.
    6. Melina, Giovanni & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Debt sustainability, public investment, and natural resources in developing countries: The DIGNAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 630-649.
    7. William Barnett & Unal Eryilmaz, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Determinacy: An Inquiry in Open Economy New Keynesian Framework," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202203, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    8. Rick Van der Ploeg, 2016. "Macro Policy Responses To Natural Resource Windfalls," OxCarre Working Papers 178, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    9. Maryam Ahmadi & Matteo Manera, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries," Working Papers 2021.13, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    10. Chuku Chuku & Jacob Oduor & Anthony Simpasa & Peter Mwanakatwe, 2019. "Working Paper 318 - A DGE Model for Growth and Development Planning: Malawi," Working Paper Series 2444, African Development Bank.
    11. Bergholt, Drago & Larsen, Vegard H. & Seneca, Martin, 2019. "Business cycles in an oil economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 283-303.
    12. Faltermeier, Julia & Lama, Ruy & Medina, Juan Pablo, 2022. "Foreign exchange intervention for commodity booms and busts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    13. Tenreyro, Silvana & Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2020. "Oil price shocks, fuel subsidies and macroeconomic (in)stability in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 105464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2019. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in Nigeria: Some Insights from an Estimated DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Malova, Aleksandra & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 27-40.
    17. Ohad Raveh, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Natural Resources, and Federal Redistribution," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(3), pages 585-613, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    small open economy; oil export; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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