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Monetary Policy Rule, Exchange Rate Regime, and Fiscal Policy Cyclicality in a Developing Oil Economy

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  • Algozhina, Aliya

Abstract

This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of joint monetary and fiscal policy for a developing oil economy to find an appropriate monetary rule combined with pro-/countercyclical and neutral fiscal stance based on a loss measure. The model captures a set of structural specifics: two monetary instruments–interest rate and foreign exchange interventions, two fiscal instruments–public consumption and public investment, two production sectors–oil and non-oil, and the two types of households–optimizers and rule-of-thumb households. It further includes a Sovereign Wealth Fund, the foreign debt of private sector via collateral constraint, and a world oil price shock. The loss measure is chosen as an equal summation of variances in in ation, output, and real exchange rate to be minimized by Taylor rule’s parameters in a small open economy. The foreign exchange interventions distinguish between managed and exible exchange rate regime. Fiscal policy cyclicality is referred to the oil output response of public consumption and public investment. Impulse response functions to the negative world oil price shock are analyzed at exible and rigid prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Algozhina, Aliya, 2016. "Monetary Policy Rule, Exchange Rate Regime, and Fiscal Policy Cyclicality in a Developing Oil Economy," Dynare Working Papers 49, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:049
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    Cited by:

    1. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Yang, Bo, 2024. "Oil price shocks and macroeconomic dynamics in resource-rich emerging economies under regime shifts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Cao, Fangzhi & Su, Chi-Wei & Sun, Dian & Qin, Meng & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "U.S. monetary policy: The pushing hands of crude oil price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Shahzad, Umer & Orsi, Bianca & Sharma, Gagan Deep, 2024. "Managing inflation expectations and the efficiency of monetary policy responses to energy crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Ghiaie, Hamed & Tabarraei, Hamid Reza & Tavakolian, Hossein, 2022. "Alternative monetary policy regimes in an oil-exporting economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 161-177.
    5. Agboola, Emmanuel & Chowdhury, Rosen & Yang, Bo, 2024. "Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Nurdaulet Abilov, 2020. "An Estimated Bayesian DSGE Model for Kazakhstan," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 30-54, March.
    7. Oladunni, Sunday, 2020. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics in an Oil-Exporting Emerging Economy: A New Keynesian DSGE Approach," MPRA Paper 104551, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jun 2020.
    8. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Adeabah, David & Sahay, Vinita S., 2024. "Time-varying relationship between international monetary policy and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Nikiforov Petro & Greshko Roman & Marych Maksym & Marusiak Nataliia & Kharabara Violetta & Gladchuk Olga, 2022. "Mutual Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Context of Ensuring Macro-Financial Stability of the State," Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, Sciendo, vol. 44(4), pages 435-442, December.
    10. Hossein Tavakolian & Hamed Ghiaie, 2019. "Optimal Inflation Targeting in a Dual-Exchange Rate Oil Economy," THEMA Working Papers 2019-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil economy; monetary policy; fiscal policy; exchange rate; oil price shock; interventions; SWF;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

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