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A medium-scale Bayesian DSGE model for Kazakhstan with incomplete exchange rate pass-through

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  • Nurdaulet Abilov

    (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)

Abstract

The paper analyzes the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Kazakhstan and the relevance of various frictions in the economy using a medium-scale DSGE model with imperfect exchange rate pass-through. We estimate the model via Bayesian methods and present estimates of structural parameters of the model and highlight the role of various shocks in explaining the actual dynamics of observed variables. In the absence of quality and deseasonalized data we show that the DSGE model with time-varying markups possesses a reasonable level of accuracy as the one-sided Kalman filter predictions match the dynamics of the observable variables. Posterior estimates of the model show that the long-run growth rate of output is 4.5% per annum and the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices is between 21% and 35% within a quarter. We also find that risk premium shocks have played an important role in determining the inflation rate, the interest rate and the real exchange rate in the economy since 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurdaulet Abilov, 2020. "A medium-scale Bayesian DSGE model for Kazakhstan with incomplete exchange rate pass-through," NAC Analytica Working Paper 7, NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University, revised Apr 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:ajx:wpaper:7
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    Keywords

    DSGE model; Incomplete exchange rate pass-through; Bayesian estimation; Emerging economy; Kazakhstan.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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