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Government spending effects in low-income countries

Author

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  • Shen, Wenyi
  • Yang, Shu-Chun S.
  • Zanna, Luis-Felipe

Abstract

Despite the voluminous literature on fiscal policy, very few papers focus on low-income countries (LICs). This paper develops a New Keynesian small open economy model to show, analytically and numerically, that several prevalent features of LICs—dependence on external financing, public investment inefficiency, and a low degree of home bias in public investment—play important roles in government spending effects. External financing increases the resource envelope, mitigating the crowding out effects, but it tends to appreciate the real exchange rate, lowering traded output. Although capital scarcity in LICs implies high returns to public capital, low marginal investment efficiency can substantially dampen the output multiplier. Also, public investment may not be effective in stimulating output in the short run, as LICs often rely on imports to a large extent to carry out public investment projects, weakening its role as a short-run demand stimulus.

Suggested Citation

  • Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Government spending effects in low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 201-219.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:133:y:2018:i:c:p:201-219
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.02.005
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    3. Kimaro, Edmund Lawrence & Keong, Choong Chee & Sea, Lau Lin, 2017. "Government Expenditure, Efficiency and Economic Growth: A Panel Analysis of Sub Saharan African Low Income Countries," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 5(2), July.
    4. William Mbanyele, 2019. "Public Expenditure and Economic Growth Causal Linkage: Disaggregated Empirical Analysis for Zimbabwe," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 239-252, December.
    5. Ioana Moldovan & Shu-Chun Susan Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2019. "Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid," IMF Working Papers 2019/126, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Siming Liu, 2018. "Spending Multiplier during Sudden Stop Crises," 2018 Meeting Papers 226, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Canh Phuc NGUYEN & Christophe SCHINCKUS, 2020. "The Spending Behavior of Government through the Lenses of Global Uncertainty and Economic Integration," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 35-57, July.
    8. Hongru Zhang & Yang Yang, 2019. "Prescribing for the tourism-induced Dutch disease: A DSGE analysis of subsidy policies," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(6), pages 942-963, September.
    9. Pan, Xiongfeng & Xu, Haitao & Li, Mengna & Zong, Tianjiao & Lee, Chew Tin & Lu, Yuduo, 2020. "Environmental expenditure spillovers: Evidence from an estimated multi-area DSGE model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Vishal Sharma & Ashok Mittal, 2019. "Fiscal deficit, capital formation, and economic growth in India: a nonlinear ARDL model," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 46(4), pages 353-363, December.
    11. Constance de Soyres & Anna Rogantini Picco & Randa Sab, 2019. "Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?," IMF Working Papers 2019/037, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Siming Liu, 2018. "Government Spending during Sudden Stop Crises," CAEPR Working Papers 2018-002, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    13. Shvets, Serhii, 2020. "The golden rule of public finance under active monetary stance: endogenous setting for a developing economy," MPRA Paper 101232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Low-income countries; Public investment; Fiscal multipliers; Small open DSGE models; Aid;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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