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Debt-dependent effects of fiscal expansions

Author

Listed:
  • Huixin Bi
  • Wenyi Shen
  • Shu-Chun Yang

Abstract

Economists often postulate that fiscal expansions are less stimulative when government debt is high than when it is low. Empirical evidence, however, is ambiguous. Using a nonlinear neoclassical growth model, we show that the difference in government spending effects between high- and low-debt environments depends on the wealth effect on labor supply and on whether the government uses taxes or spending to retire debt. Because of interrelated state variables, structural VAR estimations conditioning on debt alone can fail to isolate debt-dependent effects. Also, uncertainty on when the government will conduct fiscal consolidations generates wide confidence bands for spending multipliers, further complicating efforts to estimate debt-dependent government spending effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Huixin Bi & Wenyi Shen & Shu-Chun Yang, 2016. "Debt-dependent effects of fiscal expansions," Research Working Paper RWP 16-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp16-04
    DOI: 10.18651/RWP2016-04
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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