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A Sovereign Wealth Fund to Lift Germany’s Curse of Excess Savings

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  • Gros, Daniel
  • Mayer, Thomas

Abstract

As an alternative to the present system of intermediation of the German savings surplus, this paper suggests that the risk-adjusted rate of return could be improved by creating a sovereign wealth fund for Germany (designated DESWF), which could invest excess German savings globally. Such a DESWF would offer German savers a secure vehicle paying a guaranteed positive minimum real interest rate, with a top-up when real investment returns allowed. The vehicle would invest the funds in a portfolio that is highly diversified by geography and asset classes. Positive real returns can be expected in the long run based on positive real global growth. Since, in this case, a significant amount of funds would flow outside the euro area, the euro would depreciate, which would help crisis countries presently struggling to revive growth through exports and to close their external deficits so as to recoup their international credit-worthiness. Target imbalances would gradually disappear and German claims abroad would move from nominal claims on the ECB to diversified real and nominal claims on various private and public foreign entities in a variety of asset classes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gros, Daniel & Mayer, Thomas, 2012. "A Sovereign Wealth Fund to Lift Germany’s Curse of Excess Savings," CEPS Papers 7229, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:7229
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    File URL: http://www.ceps.eu/system/files/book/2012/08/PB280%20DG%20%2526%20TM%20on%20DESWF.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    2. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2012. "Combating Widespread Currency Manipulation," Policy Briefs PB12-19, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Melina, Giovanni & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Debt sustainability, public investment, and natural resources in developing countries: The DIGNAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 630-649.
    2. Robert N. McCauley & Guonan Ma, 2013. "Global and Euro Imbalances: China and Germany," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    3. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, 2014. "What Should Surplus Germany Do?," Policy Briefs PB14-14, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Stephen Cecchetti & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Interpreting TARGET2 balances," BIS Working Papers 393, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Corinne C Delechat & John W Clark JR & Pranav Gupta & Malangu Kabedi-Mbuyi & Mesmin Koulet-Vickot & Carla Macario & Toomas Orav & Manuel Rosales Torres & Rene Tapsoba & Dmitry Zhdankin & Susan S. Yang, 2015. "Harnessing Resource Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States," IMF Working Papers 15/25, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Levine,Paul Leslie & Melina,Giovanni & Onder,Harun, 2016. "Non-renewable resources, fiscal rules, and human capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7695, The World Bank.
    7. Christine Richmond & Irene Yackovlev & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2015. "Investing Volatile Resource Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 193-221, February.
    8. Giovanni Melina & Yi Xiong, 2013. "Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 13/261, International Monetary Fund.

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