IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifofor/v13y2012i04p51-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Target Losses in Case of a Euro Breakup

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Werner Sinn

Abstract

Evaluation of the financial costs of a Eurozone breakup depends critically on the interpretation of TARGET balances. While it has been argued that TARGET claims in the Eurozone can be written off without incurring any losses on the claimants as the value of fiat money is independent of the claims of a national central bank, the present paper shows that TARGET claims represent a shift of the ECB's refinancing credit to the crisis countries and thus a claim on the interest return from the commercial banks of these countries. If TARGET claims were to be written off, a loss of real wealth would occur to the amount of the present value of this interest return, which is exactly measured by the amount of the TARGET claims.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Target Losses in Case of a Euro Breakup," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(04), pages 51-58, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofor:v:13:y:2012:i:04:p:51-58
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/forum4-12-special1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Target Losses in Case of a Euro Breakup," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(04), pages 51-58, December.
    2. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Feist, Holger, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The distribution of seigniorage wealth in EMU1," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 665-689, December.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Die Target-Falle: Gefahren für unser Geld und unsere Kinder," Books, by Staff of the ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2012001.
    5. Stefan Homburg, 2012. "Der neue Kurs der Europäischen Zentralbank," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 92(10), pages 673-677, October.
    6. Wilhelm Kohler, 2012. "The Eurosystem in Times of Crises: Greece in the Role of a Reserve Currency Country?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(1), pages 14-22, February.
    7. Buiter, Willem & Rahbari, Ebrahim, 2012. "Target2 Redux: The simple accountancy and slightly more complex economics of Bundesbank loss exposure through the Eurosystem," CEPR Discussion Papers 9211, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Target Losses in Case of a Euro Breakup," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(04), pages 51-58, December.
    2. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2013. "Explosive Target Balances," CESifo Working Paper Series 4297, CESifo.
    3. Huck, Steffen & Valasek, Justin Mattias, 2012. "Institutionalizing eurozone exit: A modified NEWNEY approach," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2012-304, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    4. Stephen Cecchetti & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Interpreting TARGET2 balances," BIS Working Papers 393, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Die Target-Verluste im Fall des Auseinanderbrechens des Euro – Eine Replik auf De Grauwe und Ji," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 14-24, January.
    6. Heikki Oksanen, 2016. "Smoothing Asymmetric Shocks vs. Redistribution in the Euro Area: A Simple Proposal for Dealing with Mistrust in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 5817, CESifo.
    7. Sergio Cesaratto, 2012. "The endless eurozone crisis, where do we stand? a classical-kaleckian overview," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2012(107), pages 35-63.
    8. Moro, Beniamino, 2019. "Interpreting TARGET balances in the European Monetary Union: A critical review of the literature," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    9. Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi, 2013. "Chapter 4: US Precedents for Europe," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 95-107, February.
    10. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2018. "Brexit a krize eura: jakou chceme Evropskou unii? [Brexit and the Euro Crisis: What Kind of Union Do We Want?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(1), pages 3-19.
    11. Aitor Erce, 2014. "Cross‐Border Banking, Externalities And Sovereign Distress: Does The Euro Need A Common Banking Authority?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 188-203, July.
    12. Adam Koronowski, 2014. "Dual Currency System as a Solution to the Eurozone Crisis," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 5-23.
    13. Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud & Chitu, Livia & Richardson, Gary, 2015. "Mutual Assistance between Federal Reserve Banks: 1913–1960 as Prolegomena to the TARGET2 Debate," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 621-659, September.
    14. Potrafke, Niklas & Reischmann, Markus, 2014. "Explosive Target balances of the German Bundesbank," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 439-444.
    15. Kappius, Robert & Neumärker, Bernhard, 2015. "Could exit rules be self-enforcing in the EU? The cases of France and Germany," The Constitutional Economics Network Working Papers 02-2015, University of Freiburg, Department of Economic Policy and Constitutional Economic Theory.
    16. Pasche, Markus, 2017. "ESBies as a Basis for a TARGET2 Settlement Mechanism," MPRA Paper 83012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target-Salden und die deutsche Kapitalbilanz im Zeichen der europäischen Zahlungsbilanzkrise," ifo Working Paper Series 149, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    18. PhilippineCour-Thimann, 2013. "CESifo Forum Special Issue April 2013: Target Balances and the Crisis in the Euro Area," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0, pages 05-50, May.
    19. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target Balances and the German Financial Account in Light of the European Balance-of-Payments Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4051, CESifo.
    20. Leszek Balcerowicz, 2014. "Euro Imbalances and Adjustment: A Comparative Analysis," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(3), pages 453-482, Fall.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Die Target-Verluste im Fall des Auseinanderbrechens des Euro – Eine Replik auf De Grauwe und Ji," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 14-24, January.
    2. PhilippineCour-Thimann, 2013. "CESifo Forum Special Issue April 2013: Target Balances and the Crisis in the Euro Area," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0, pages 05-50, May.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Target Losses in Case of a Euro Breakup," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(4), pages 51-58, December.
    4. Sauer, Beate & Sell, Friedrich L., 2013. "Is the Eurozone not a monetary union, but an extraordinary exchange rate union?," Working Papers in Economics 2013,2, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    5. Fagan, Gabriel & McNelis, Paul D., 2020. "Sudden stops in the Euro Area: Does monetary union matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Moro, Beniamino, 2019. "Interpreting TARGET balances in the European Monetary Union: A critical review of the literature," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. Philippine Cour-Thimann, 2013. "CESifo Forum Special Issue April 2013: Target Balances and the Crisis in the Euro Area," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0(1), pages 05-50, May.
    8. Stephen Cecchetti & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Interpreting TARGET2 balances," BIS Working Papers 393, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Eger, Thomas & Weise, Peter, 2020. "Die Target-Salden in der Eurozone: "Falle" oder Scheinproblem?," Discussion Papers 1/20, Europa-Kolleg Hamburg, Institute for European Integration.
    10. Francesco Papadia, 2014. "Operational Aspects of a Hypothetical Demise of the Euro," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(5), pages 1090-1102, September.
    11. Sinn Hans-Werner, 2019. "Der Streit um die Targetsalden : Kommentar zu Martin Hellwigs Artikel „Target-Falle oder Empörungsfalle?“," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 170-217, September.
    12. Costas Lapavitsas, 2018. "The Redenomination Risk of Eurozone Exit for Greece," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(03), pages 31-34, November.
    13. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Kedan, Danielle & Schmitz, Martin, 2024. "Euro area monetary policy and TARGET balances: A trilogy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    14. Georg Dettmann, 2014. "Determinants of Internal and External Imbalances within the Euro Area," Working Papers 01/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    15. Frank Westermann, 2014. "Discussion of "Target2 and Central Bank Balance Sheets"," IEER Working Papers 99, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    16. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    17. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    18. André Grjebine, 2013. "L'Eurosystème: un mécanisme de transferts en faveur des pays déficitaires ? Le débat," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01024818, HAL.
    19. Potrafke, Niklas & Reischmann, Markus, 2014. "Explosive Target balances of the German Bundesbank," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 439-444.
    20. Francesco Purificato & Caterina Astarita, 2015. "TARGET2 Imbalances and the ECB as Lender of Last Resort," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wechselkurspolitik; Internationaler Zahlungsverkehr; Währungsunion; Euromarkt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifofor:v:13:y:2012:i:04:p:51-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.