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Brexit a krize eura: jakou chceme Evropskou unii?
[Brexit and the Euro Crisis: What Kind of Union Do We Want?]

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn

Abstract

The article deals with the two key issues that have been fundamentally changing the European Union - the crisis of Eurozone and the Brexit. The first part discusses the change of the original balance of power in the EU after the exit of Britain and its possible consequences, especially the strengthening of the relative position of France, and hence the French concept of the EU integration model (deeper federalization of the nucleus and the rest) resulting in an even more explicit model of the two-speed EU. In the ideal Pareto model of the Union, paradoxically, the possibility of exit makes the Union more stable and compact. The second part of the text discusses the problem of the uncompetitiveness of Southern Europe as a specific case of Dutch Disease and four scenarios of its solution - the disinflation or deflation of the South, the inflation of the North, the exit from the common currency and finally the transfer union. The last named scenario is the least attractive of given options, but it is already in progress. The imbalances in the Target 2 payment system discussed in the article are example of this. The conclusion of the article brings ten points summarizing necessary economic and political measures for the EU at the time of power shift after the Brexit and ongoing imbalances between the North and the South in the currency union.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn, 2018. "Brexit a krize eura: jakou chceme Evropskou unii? [Brexit and the Euro Crisis: What Kind of Union Do We Want?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(1), pages 3-19.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2018:y:2018:i:1:id:1174:p:3-19
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1174
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Target Losses in Case of a Euro Breakup," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(04), pages 51-58, December.
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Weidenmier, Marc, 2010. "This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. By Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009. $35.00," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 766-768, September.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Benjamin Born & Teresa Buchen & Kai Carstensen & Christian Grimme & Michael Kleemann & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Withdrawal of Greece from the European Monetary Union: Historical experience, macroeconomic consequences and organisational implementation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 09-37, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    european integration; Brexit; Eurozone; balance of payments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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