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Austritt Griechenlands aus der Europäischen Währungsunion: Historische Erfahrungen, makroökonomische Konsequenzen und organisatorische Umsetzung

  • Benjamin Born
  • Teresa Buchen

    ()

  • Kai Carstensen
  • Christian Grimme

    ()

  • Michael Kleemann
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

    ()

  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Ist der Austritt Griechenlands aus der Währungsunion, verbunden mit einer externen Abwertung der neuen Währung, eine gangbare Alternative zur derzeitigen Strategie der internen Abwertung, verbunden mit öffentlichem Kapitaltransfer? Das ifo Institut vergleicht in dem Beitrag die makroökonomischen Konsequenzen von drei möglichen Zukunftsszenarien. Im ersten Szenario tritt Griechenland aus dem Euro aus und führt die Neue Griechische Drachme als offizielles Zahlungsmittel ein. Im zweiten Szenario verbleibt Griechenland in der Währungsunion und schafft es, die notwendige interne Abwertung zu erreichen. Im dritten Szenario wird angenommen, dass Griechenland zwar in der Währungsunion verbleibt, die notwendige interne Abwertung jedoch misslingt und durch öffentliche Subventionen aus der EU ausgeglichen wird. Während das letzte Szenario die aktuelle Situation fortschreibt, wird für die ersten beiden Szenarien anhand von historischen Beispielen untersucht, wie sich wichtige volkswirtschaftliche Größen nach großen Abwertungen entwickelt haben. Zudem werden für diese beiden Szenarien mögliche negative Bilanzeffekte für Griechenland analysiert. Zum Abschluss wird die technische Umsetzung des Austritts Griechenlands aus der Eurozone diskutiert.

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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 65 (2012)
Issue (Month): 10 (05)
Pages: 09-37

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:10:p:09-37
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