IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v65y2012i10p09-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Austritt Griechenlands aus der Europäischen Währungsunion: Historische Erfahrungen, makroökonomische Konsequenzen und organisatorische Umsetzung

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Born
  • Teresa Buchen
  • Kai Carstensen
  • Christian Grimme
  • Michael Kleemann
  • Klaus Wohlrabe
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Ist der Austritt Griechenlands aus der Währungsunion, verbunden mit einer externen Abwertung der neuen Währung, eine gangbare Alternative zur derzeitigen Strategie der internen Abwertung, verbunden mit öffentlichem Kapitaltransfer? Das ifo Institut vergleicht in dem Beitrag die makroökonomischen Konsequenzen von drei möglichen Zukunftsszenarien. Im ersten Szenario tritt Griechenland aus dem Euro aus und führt die Neue Griechische Drachme als offizielles Zahlungsmittel ein. Im zweiten Szenario verbleibt Griechenland in der Währungsunion und schafft es, die notwendige interne Abwertung zu erreichen. Im dritten Szenario wird angenommen, dass Griechenland zwar in der Währungsunion verbleibt, die notwendige interne Abwertung jedoch misslingt und durch öffentliche Subventionen aus der EU ausgeglichen wird. Während das letzte Szenario die aktuelle Situation fortschreibt, wird für die ersten beiden Szenarien anhand von historischen Beispielen untersucht, wie sich wichtige volkswirtschaftliche Größen nach großen Abwertungen entwickelt haben. Zudem werden für diese beiden Szenarien mögliche negative Bilanzeffekte für Griechenland analysiert. Zum Abschluss wird die technische Umsetzung des Austritts Griechenlands aus der Eurozone diskutiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Born & Teresa Buchen & Kai Carstensen & Christian Grimme & Michael Kleemann & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Austritt Griechenlands aus der Europäischen Währungsunion: Historische Erfahrungen, makroökonomische Konsequenzen und organisatorische Umsetzung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 09-37, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:10:p:09-37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2012_10_3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clar06-2, October.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    4. Hans-Wener Sinn & Teresa Buchen & Timo Wollmershauser, 2011. "Trade Imbalances: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Measures," Book Chapters, in: Jack T. Boorman & André Icard (ed.), Reform of the International Monetary System: The Palais Royal Initiative, edition 1, chapter 26, pages 321-342, Emerging Markets Forum.
    5. Axel Lindner, 2011. "Macroeconomic adjustment: the Baltic states versus euro area crisis countries," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 46(6), pages 340-345, December.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    7. Andrew Rose, 2007. "Checking out: exits from currency unions," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 19, pages 121-128.
    8. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
    9. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 51-74, Fall.
    10. Karl Brenke, 2012. "Die griechische Wirtschaft braucht eine Wachstumsstrategie," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(5), pages 3-15.
    11. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Exchange-rate System between the Czech and Slovak Republics," Macroeconomics 0304004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Dirk Meyer, 2012. "Ein Fahrplan zum Euroaustritt – technische Vorbereitung und Durchführung im Austrittsland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(06), pages 22-27, March.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1999. "The Future of EMU: What Does the History of Monetary Unions Tell Us?," NBER Working Papers 7365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Homburg, 2019. "Speculative Eurozone Attacks and Departure Strategies," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 65(1), pages 1-15.
    2. Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi, 2013. "Chapter 2: European Imbalances," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 55-72, February.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2018. "Brexit a krize eura: jakou chceme Evropskou unii? [Brexit and the Euro Crisis: What Kind of Union Do We Want?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(1), pages 3-19.
    4. Reiner Peter Hellbrück, 2012. "Regionale Zinspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(15), pages 27-34, August.
    5. Jürgen Matthes & Thomas Schuster, 2015. "Zum Umgang der Europäischen Währungsunion mit reformunwilligen Eurostaaten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(04), pages 13-18, February.
    6. Fritz Breuss, 2012. "EU-Mitgliedschaft Österreichs. Eine Evaluierung in Zeiten der Krise," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45578, June.
    7. Peter Burgold, 2013. "Nominale Abwertung innerhalb einer Währungsunion," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 47-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    8. Isabel Hanisch & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2015. "Wie schnell erholt sich eine Volkswirtschaft nach einer Währungs- und Staatsschuldenkrise?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(13), pages 56-57, July.
    9. Dirk Meyer, 2012. "Das Konzept nationaler Parallelwährungen für die Eurozone," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(16), pages 19-28, August.
    10. Klaus Weyerstrass & Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein, 2013. "Euro Area Scenarios and their Economic Consequences for Slovenia and Serbia," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 11(4 (Winter), pages 323-351.
    11. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, July.
    2. Juan Marchetti & Michele Ruta & Robert Teh, 2012. "Trade Imbalances and Multilateral Trade Cooperation," CESifo Working Paper Series 4050, CESifo.
    3. Terzi, Alessio, 2020. "Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. José Daniel Aromí, 2021. "Large Current Account Deficits and Neglected Vulnerabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(4), pages 597-623, December.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "A Decade of Debt," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 4, pages 97-135, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Renée Fry & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2011. "Actually This Time Is Different," CAMA Working Papers 2011-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Alessio Terzi, 2019. "The Euro Crisis and Economic Growth: A Novel Counterfactual Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 7746, CESifo.
    8. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2014. "Contagion and Global Financial Crises: Lessons from Nine Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 521-570, July.
    9. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2018. "Brexit a krize eura: jakou chceme Evropskou unii? [Brexit and the Euro Crisis: What Kind of Union Do We Want?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(1), pages 3-19.
    10. Min Lu, 2012. "Current account dynamics and optimal monetary policy in a two-country economy," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 299-324.
    11. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Romei, Federica, 2014. "Debt deleveraging and the exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-16.
    12. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
    13. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    14. Philipp Engler & Michael Fidora & Christian Thimann, 2009. "External Imbalances and the US Current Account: How Supply‐Side Changes Affect an Exchange Rate Adjustment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 927-941, November.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, May.
    16. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Commentary: the surprising origin and nature of financial crises: a macroeconomic policy proposal," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 69-74.
    17. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart & Takeshi Tashiro, 2013. "Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-43.
    19. Economides, George & Papageorgiou, Dmitris & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2020. "Macroeconomic policy lessons from Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107155, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments," Working Papers hal-04141182, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Staatsbankrott; Umschuldung; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion; Finanzmarktkrise; Griechenland; Eurozone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:10:p:09-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.