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Austritt Griechenlands aus der Europäischen Währungsunion: Historische Erfahrungen, makroökonomische Konsequenzen und organisatorische Umsetzung

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Benjamin Born
  • Teresa Buchen
  • Kai Carstensen
  • Christian Grimme

    ()

  • Michael Kleemann
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

    ()

  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Ist der Austritt Griechenlands aus der Währungsunion, verbunden mit einer externen Abwertung der neuen Währung, eine gangbare Alternative zur derzeitigen Strategie der internen Abwertung, verbunden mit öffentlichem Kapitaltransfer? Das ifo Institut vergleicht in dem Beitrag die makroökonomischen Konsequenzen von drei möglichen Zukunftsszenarien. Im ersten Szenario tritt Griechenland aus dem Euro aus und führt die Neue Griechische Drachme als offizielles Zahlungsmittel ein. Im zweiten Szenario verbleibt Griechenland in der Währungsunion und schafft es, die notwendige interne Abwertung zu erreichen. Im dritten Szenario wird angenommen, dass Griechenland zwar in der Währungsunion verbleibt, die notwendige interne Abwertung jedoch misslingt und durch öffentliche Subventionen aus der EU ausgeglichen wird. Während das letzte Szenario die aktuelle Situation fortschreibt, wird für die ersten beiden Szenarien anhand von historischen Beispielen untersucht, wie sich wichtige volkswirtschaftliche Größen nach großen Abwertungen entwickelt haben. Zudem werden für diese beiden Szenarien mögliche negative Bilanzeffekte für Griechenland analysiert. Zum Abschluss wird die technische Umsetzung des Austritts Griechenlands aus der Eurozone diskutiert.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2012/zs-sd-2012-10/ifosd_2012_10_3.pdf
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Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 65 (2012)
Issue (Month): 10 (05)
Pages: 09-37

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:10:p:09-37
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Keywords: Staatsbankrott; Umschuldung; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion; Finanzmarktkrise; Griechenland; Eurozone;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
  • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
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  3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
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  6. Hans-Wener Sinn & Teresa Buchen & Timo Wollmershauser, 2011. "Trade Imbalances: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Measures," Book Chapters,in: Jack T. Boorman & André Icard (ed.), Reform of the International Monetary System: The Palais Royal Initiative, chapter 26, pages 321-342 Emerging Markets Forum.
  7. Axel Lindner, 2011. "Macroeconomic adjustment: the Baltic states versus euro area crisis countries," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 46(6), pages 340-345, December.
  8. Fidrmuc, J. & Horváth, J., 1998. "Stability of Monetary Unions : Lessons from the Break-Up of Czechoslovakia," Discussion Paper 1998-74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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Cited by:

  1. Isabel Hanisch & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2015. "Wie schnell erholt sich eine Volkswirtschaft nach einer Währungs- und Staatsschuldenkrise?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(13), pages 56-57, 07.
  2. Dirk Meyer, 2012. "Das Konzept nationaler Parallelwährungen für die Eurozone," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(16), pages 19-28, 08.
  3. Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi, 2013. "Chapter 2: European Imbalances," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 55-72, 02.
  4. Klaus Weyerstrass & Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein, 2013. "Euro Area Scenarios and their Economic Consequences for Slovenia and Serbia," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 11(4 (Winter), pages 323-351.
  5. Reiner Peter Hellbrück, 2012. "Regionale Zinspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(15), pages 27-34, 08.
  6. Jürgen Matthes & Thomas Schuster, 2015. "Zum Umgang der Europäischen Währungsunion mit reformunwilligen Eurostaaten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(04), pages 13-18, 02.
  7. Peter Burgold, 2013. "Nominale Abwertung innerhalb einer Währungsunion," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 47-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.

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