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Speculative Eurozone Attacks and Departure Strategies

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  • Homburg, Stefan

Abstract

This paper shows that the eurozone payment system does not effectively protect member states from speculative attacks. Suspicion of a departure from the common currency induces a terminal outflow of central bank money in weaker member states. TARGET2 cannot inhibit this drain but only protects central bank assets. Evidence presented here suggests that a run on Italy is already on the way. The paper also considers departure strategies of strong and weak member states and the distributive effects of an orderly eurozone dissolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Homburg, Stefan, 2018. "Speculative Eurozone Attacks and Departure Strategies," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-640, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-640
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    2. repec:ces:ifodic:v:16:y:2018:i:3:p:50000000003757 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Target-Kredite, Leistungsbilanzsalden und Kapitalverkehr: Der Rettungsschirm der EZB," ifo Working Paper Series 105, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    5. Garber, Peter M., 1999. "The target mechanism: Will it propagate or stifle a stage III crisis?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 195-220, December.
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    8. Sven Steinkamp & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2017. "The Euro Area's Common Pool Problem Revisited: Has the Single Supervisory Mechanism Ameliorated Forbearance and Evergreening," CESifo Working Paper Series 6670, CESifo.
    9. Ulrich Bindseil & Philipp Johann König, 2012. "TARGET2 and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 45(2), pages 135-174.
    10. Stefan Homburg, 2011. "Comments on the Target2 debate," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(16), pages 46-50, September.
    11. Bryon Higgins, 1993. "Was the ERM crisis inevitable?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 78(Q IV), pages 27-40.
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    13. Benjamin Born & Teresa Buchen & Kai Carstensen & Christian Grimme & Michael Kleemann & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Withdrawal of Greece from the European Monetary Union: Historical experience, macroeconomic consequences and organisational implementation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 09-37, May.
    14. Clemens Fuest, 2018. "[Art 50] Ways to Leave the Euro – Does the Eurozone Need an Exit Clause?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(03), pages 25-30, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    2. Heikki Oksanen, 2019. "Reforming the Euro Pragmatically: Towards Sustainable Fiscal Policy and a Revamped Eurosystem," CESifo Working Paper Series 7912, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency speculation; TARGET2; eurozone; Italexit; Dexit; trilemma;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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