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Exit Strategies, Capital Flight and Speculative Attacks: Europe's Version of the Trilemma

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Steiner

    () (University of Groningen)

  • Sven Steinkamp

    () (Osnabrück University)

  • Frank Westermann

    (Osnabrück University)

Abstract

In the winter 2011/12 a wave of internal capital flight prompted the ECB to abandon its exit strategy and to announce an unprecedented monetary expansion. We analyze this episode in several dimensions: (i) by providing an event-study analysis covering key variables from national central banks' balance sheets, (ii) by rationalizing their patterns in a portfolio balance model of the exchange rate, augmented by institutional characteristics of the TARGET2 system, and (iii) by proposing a theory-based index of exchange market pressure within the euro area. We argue that the euro area entails an inherent policy trilemma that makes it prone to speculative attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Steiner & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2017. "Exit Strategies, Capital Flight and Speculative Attacks: Europe's Version of the Trilemma," Working Papers 108, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
  • Handle: RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0108
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Union; Exchange Market Pressure; Policy Trilemma; Speculative Attack; TARGET2.;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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