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The term structure of redenomination risk

Author

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  • Bayer, Christian
  • Kim, Chi
  • Kriwoluzky, Alexander

Abstract

This paper assesses redenomination risk in the euro area. We first estimate daily default-risk-free yield curves for French, German, and Italian bonds that can be redenominated and for bonds that cannot. Then, we extract the compensation for redenomination risk from the yield spreads between these two types of bonds. Redenomination risk primarily shows up at the short end of yield curves. At the height of the euro crisis, spreads between first-year yields were close to 7% for Italy and up to -2% for Germany. The ECB's interventions designed to reduce breakup risk successfully did so for Italy, but increased it for France and Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayer, Christian & Kim, Chi & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2018. "The term structure of redenomination risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 12965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12965
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECB Interventions; Eurocrisis; redenomination risk; Yield Curve;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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