IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20131587.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing asset purchases within the ECB’s securities markets programme

Author

Listed:
  • Schwaab, Bernd
  • Eser, Fabian

Abstract

We assess the yield impact of asset purchases within the ECB’s Securities Markets Programme in five euro area sovereign bond markets during 2010-11. Identification is non-trivial and based on time series panel data regression on predetermined purchases and control covariates. In addition to large and economically significant announcement effects, we find an average impact at the five year maturity per e1 bn of bond purchases of approximately -1 to -2 bps (Italy), -3 bps (Ireland), -4 to -6 bps (Spain), -6 to -9 bps (Portugal), and up to -17 to -21 bps (Greece). The impact depends on market size and a default risk signal, and is approximately -3 basis points at a five-year maturity for purchases of 1/1000 of the respective debt market. Bond yield volatility is lower on intervention days for most SMP countries, due to less extreme movements occurring when the Eurosystem is active as a buyer. A dynamic specification points to both transitory and longer-lived effects from purchases. JEL Classification: C32, G12

Suggested Citation

  • Schwaab, Bernd & Eser, Fabian, 2013. "Assessing asset purchases within the ECB’s securities markets programme," Working Paper Series 1587, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131587
    Note: 955417
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1587.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drew Creal & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2014. "Observation-Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 898-915, December.
    2. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    4. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    5. Hoerova, Marie & Monnet, Cyril & Temzelides, Ted, 2012. "Money talks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 617-621.
    6. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 447-466, November.
    7. Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-216, April.
    8. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2015. "The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 215-236.
    9. Darrell Duffie, 2012. "Over-The-Counter Markets," Introductory Chapters, in: Dark Markets: Asset Pricing and Information Transmission in Over-the-Counter Markets, Princeton University Press.
    10. Michael A. S. Joyce & Ana Lasaosa & Ibrahim Stevens & Matthew Tong, 2011. "The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 113-161, September.
    11. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2016. "The Mystery of the Printing Press: Monetary Policy and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1329-1371.
    12. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    13. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    14. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd, 2011. "Modeling frailty-correlated defaults using many macroeconomic covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 312-325, June.
    15. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    16. Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier & Simone Manganelli & Olivier Vergote, 2017. "A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 218-243.
    17. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab, 2012. "Dynamic Factor Models With Macro, Frailty, and Industry Effects for U.S. Default Counts: The Credit Crisis of 2008," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 521-532, May.
    18. Darrell Duffie & Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1865-1900, November.
    19. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    20. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    21. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2012. "The "Mystery of the Printing Press" Monetary Policy and Self-fulfilling Debt Crises," Discussion Papers 1424, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Aug 2014.
    22. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eser, Fabian & Schwaab, Bernd, 2016. "Evaluating the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures: Empirical evidence from the ECB׳s Securities Markets Programme," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 147-167.
    2. Caballero, Diego & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 283-297.
    3. Corradin, Stefano & Maddaloni, Angela, 2020. "The importance of being special: Repo markets during the crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 392-429.
    4. Christoph Trebesch & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2018. "ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(2), pages 287-332, June.
    5. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
    6. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2016. "Correlation changes between the risk-free rate and sovereign yields of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1979, European Central Bank.
    7. Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2015. "The ECB Unconventional Monetary Policies: Have They Lowered Market Borrowing Costs for Banks and Governments?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 91-127, December.
    8. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2023. "A global monetary policy factor in sovereign bond yields," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 445-465.
    9. António Afonso, & Manish K. Singh, 2016. "Is the supply of long-term debt independent of the term premia? Evidence from Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/11, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Zaghini, Andrea, 2019. "The CSPP at work: Yield heterogeneity and the portfolio rebalancing channel," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 282-297.
    11. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    12. Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2017. "Global Credit Risk: World, Country and Industry Factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 296-317, March.
    13. Saka, Orkun & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2015. "ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 168-185.
    14. Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2014. "Nowcasting and forecasting global financial sector stress and credit market dislocation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 741-758.
    15. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    16. İshak Demi̇r & Burak A. Eroğlu & Seçi̇l Yildirim‐Karaman, 2022. "Heterogeneous Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on the Bond Yields across the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1425-1457, August.
    17. Kaoru Hosono & Shogo Isobe, 2014. "The Financial Market Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies in the U.S., the U.K., the Eurozone, and Japan," Discussion papers ron259, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    18. Fornari, Fabio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2022. "It’s not time to make a change: Sovereign fragility and the corporate credit risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    19. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Maral Shamloo, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Long-Term Yields in Small Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 2017/212, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2013. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank asset purchases; effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures; European Central Bank; Securities Markets Programme;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131587. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.