IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/jeurec/v15y2017i1p218-243..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Ghysels
  • Julien Idier
  • Simone Manganelli
  • Olivier Vergote

Abstract

Policy impact studies often suffer from endogeneity problems. Consider the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) Securities Markets Programme: If Eurosystem interventions were triggered by sudden and strong price deteriorations, looking at daily price changes may bias downward the correlation between yields and the amounts of bonds purchased. Simple regressions of daily changes in yields on quantities often give insignificant or even positive coefficients and therefore suggest that Securities Markets Programme (SMP) interventions have been ineffective, or worse counterproductive. We use high-frequency data on purchases of the ECB Securities Markets Programme and sovereign bond quotes to address the simultaneity and endogeneity issues. We propose a Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) framework estimated at several frequencies to better measure the SMP impact and its persistence. Our results show that SMP interventions have been effective in reducing yields of government bonds for the countries under the program.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier & Simone Manganelli & Olivier Vergote, 2017. "A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 218-243.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:15:y:2017:i:1:p:218-243.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvw003
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fatum, Rasmus & Pedersen, Jesper, 2009. "Real-time effects of central bank intervention in the euro market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 11-20, June.
    2. Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "High‐Frequency Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What Do We Learn?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-112, February.
    3. Michel Beine & Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely & Franz C. Palm, 2007. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility, its continuous and jump components," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 201-223.
    4. Stefania D'Amico & Thomas B. King, 2010. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale Treasury purchases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003. "Alternative models for stock price dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
    6. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    7. De Pooter, Michiel & Martin, Robert F. & Pruitt, Seth, 2018. "The Liquidity Effects of Official Bond Market Intervention," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 243-268, February.
    8. Jack Meaning & Feng Zhu, 2011. "The impact of recent central bank asset purchase programmes," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    9. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 685-718.
    10. Engle, Robert F. & White (the late), Halbert (ed.), 1999. "Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting: Festschrift in Honour of Clive W. J. Granger," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296836.
    11. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J., 1996. "Modeling volatility persistence of speculative returns: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-215, July.
    12. Fourel, V. & Idier, J., 2011. "Risk aversion and Uncertainty in European Sovereign Bond Markets," Working papers 349, Banque de France.
    13. Sharon Kozicki & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy: The International Experience with Central Bank Asset Purchases," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Spring), pages 13-25.
    14. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Lecourt, Christelle, 2002. "Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-144, February.
    15. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
    16. Robert F. Engle & Magdalena E. Sokalska, 0. "Forecasting intraday volatility in the US equity market. Multiplicative component GARCH," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 54-83.
    17. Schwaab, Bernd & Eser, Fabian, 2013. "Assessing asset purchases within the ECB’s securities markets programme," Working Paper Series 1587, European Central Bank.
    18. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
    19. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range‐Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:219-265 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & David Perez-Reyna, 2017. "A Theoretical Approach To Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 343-365, February.
    2. Bjoern Schulte-Tillman & Mawuli Segnon & Bernd Wilfling, 2022. "Financial-market volatility prediction with multiplicative Markov-switching MIDAS components," CQE Working Papers 9922, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2005. "Volatility forecasting," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    6. Huang, Alex YiHou & Peng, Sheng-Pen & Li, Fangjhy & Ke, Ching-Jie, 2011. "Volatility forecasting of exchange rate by quantile regression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 591-606, October.
    7. Jean-Yves Gnabo & J�rôme Lahaye & S�bastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2012. "Do jumps mislead the FX market?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1521-1532, October.
    8. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Michel Beine & Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely & Franz C. Palm, 2007. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility, its continuous and jump components," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 201-223.
    10. Gabriele Galati & Patrick Higgins & Owen Humpage & William Melick, 2007. "Option prices, exchange market intervention, and the higher moment expectations channel: a user's guide," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 225-247.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Some Like it Smooth, and Some Like it Rough: Untangling Continuous and Jump Components in Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Asset Return Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2003.
    12. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2009. "Announcements, financial operations or both? Generalizing central banks' FX reaction functions," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 367-394, December.
    13. (Jeremy) Chiu, Ching-wai & Harris, Richard D.F. & Stoja, Evarist & Chin, Michael, 2018. "Financial market Volatility, macroeconomic fundamentals and investor Sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 130-145.
    14. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sébastien & Palm, Franz C., 2009. "Central bank FOREX interventions assessed using realized moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 112-127, February.
    15. Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-20, CIRANO.
    16. Gregory Bauer & Keith Vorkink, 2007. "Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility," Staff Working Papers 07-20, Bank of Canada.
    17. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2005. "There is a risk-return trade-off after all," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 509-548, June.
    18. Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "High‐Frequency Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What Do We Learn?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-112, February.
    19. Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran & Deschamps, Bruno & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2021. "Macroeconomic forecasts and commodity futures volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 981-994.
    20. Harvey,Andrew C., 2013. "Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107630024, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:15:y:2017:i:1:p:218-243.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/jeea .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.