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A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Ghysels
  • Julien Idier
  • Simone Manganelli
  • Olivier Vergote

Abstract

Policy impact studies often suffer from endogeneity problems. Consider the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) Securities Markets Programme: If Eurosystem interventions were triggered by sudden and strong price deteriorations, looking at daily price changes may bias downward the correlation between yields and the amounts of bonds purchased. Simple regressions of daily changes in yields on quantities often give insignificant or even positive coefficients and therefore suggest that Securities Markets Programme (SMP) interventions have been ineffective, or worse counterproductive. We use high-frequency data on purchases of the ECB Securities Markets Programme and sovereign bond quotes to address the simultaneity and endogeneity issues. We propose a Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) framework estimated at several frequencies to better measure the SMP impact and its persistence. Our results show that SMP interventions have been effective in reducing yields of government bonds for the countries under the program.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier & Simone Manganelli & Olivier Vergote, 2017. "A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 218-243.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:15:y:2017:i:1:p:218-243.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvw003
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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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