IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v54y2015icp168-185.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?

Author

Listed:
  • Saka, Orkun
  • Fuertes, Ana-Maria
  • Kalotychou, Elena

Abstract

Paul De Grauwe's Eurozone fragility hypothesis states that sovereign debt markets in a monetary union without a lender-of-last-resort are vulnerable to self-fulfilling dynamics fuelled by pessimistic investor sentiment that can trigger default. We test this contention by applying an eclectic methodology to a two-year window around Mario Draghi's “whatever-it-takes” pledge that can be understood as the implicit announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program. A principal components analysis reveals that the perceived commonality in default risk among peripheral and core Eurozone sovereigns increased after the announcement. An event study reveals significant pre-announcement news transmission from Spain to Italy, France, Belgium and Austria that clearly dissipates post-announcement. Country-specific regressions of CDS spreads on systematic risk factors reveal frequent days of large adverse shocks affecting simultaneously those five Eurozone countries, but only during the pre-announcement period. Altogether these findings support the fragility hypothesis and endorse the OMT program.

Suggested Citation

  • Saka, Orkun & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2015. "ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 168-185.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:54:y:2015:i:c:p:168-185
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.03.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560615000480
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    2. Michele Lenza, 2015. "The financial and macroeconomic effects of OMT announcements," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 22, pages 12-16.
    3. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
    4. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    5. Bekaert, Geert & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2011. "Global crises and equity market contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 8438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    7. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    8. Paolo Manasse & Luca Zavalloni, 2013. "Sovereign Contagion in Europe: Evidence from the CDS Market," Working Papers 471, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    9. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    11. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
    12. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier & Simone Manganelli & Olivier Vergote, 2017. "A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 218-243.
    14. repec:oup:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:6:p:1329-1371. is not listed on IDEAS
    15. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    16. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    17. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    18. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2013. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign risk of Italy," Kiel Working Papers 1866, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    19. Jon Danielsson & Hyun Song Shin & Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 2012. "Endogenous and Systemic Risk," NBER Chapters,in: Quantifying Systemic Risk, pages 73-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    21. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 45(3), pages 255-268, September.
    22. Gros, Daniel, 2012. "A simple model of multiple equilibria and sovereign default," CEPS Papers 7174, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    23. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2014. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt turmoil," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 134-153.
    24. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-661, September.
    25. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2012. "The "Mystery of the Printing Press" Monetary Policy and Self-fulfilling Debt Crises," Discussion Papers 1424, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Aug 2014.
    26. Paul De Grauwe, 2011. "The European Central Bank: Lender of Last Resort in the Government Bond Markets?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3569, CESifo Group Munich.
    27. repec:bla:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:6:p:1329-1371 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2014. "Conditional Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 271-284, April.
    29. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    30. De Grauwe, Paul, 2011. "Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," CEPS Papers 5523, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    31. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2014. "How much Fiscal Discipline in a Monetary Union?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 348-360.
    32. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Spread the news: The impact of news on the European sovereign bond markets during the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 83-101.
    33. Schwaab, Bernd & Eser, Fabian, 2013. "Assessing asset purchases within the ECB’s securities markets programme," Working Paper Series 1587, European Central Bank.
    34. González-Hermosillo, Brenda & Johnson, Christian, 2017. "Transmission of financial stress in Europe: The pivotal role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 49-64.
    35. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    36. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2013. "Granger-causality in peripheral EMU public debt markets: A dynamic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4627-4649.
    37. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2016. "The Mystery of the Printing Press: Monetary Policy and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1329-1371.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gadea, María Dolores & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2018. "“Whatever it takes” to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-30.
    2. Dufrénot, Gilles & Gente, Karine & Monsia, Frédia, 2016. "Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 123-146.
    3. Wildmer Daniel Gregori & Wildmer Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Has the Grexit news spilled over into euro area financial markets? The role of domestic political leaders, supranational executives and institutions," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 134, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    4. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2018. "Risk perceptions and fundamental effects on sovereign spreads," Working Papers 250, Bank of Greece.
    5. Acharya, Viral & Pierret, Diane & Steffen, Sascha, 2016. "Lender of last resort versus buyer of last resort: The impact of the European Central Bank actions on the bank-sovereign nexus," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-019, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. repec:eee:empfin:v:49:y:2018:i:c:p:39-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Orkun Saka, 2017. "Domestic banks as lightning rods? Home bias during the Eurozone crisis," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 122, European Institute, LSE.
    8. Graham Bird & Wenti Du & Thomas Willett, 2017. "Behavioral Finance and Efficient Markets: What does the Euro Crisis Tell us?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 273-295, April.
    9. Wu, Eliza & Erdem, Magdalena & Kalotychou, Elena & Remolona, Eli, 2016. "The anatomy of sovereign risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 264-286.
    10. Karimalis, Emmanouil & Kosmidis, Ioannis & Peters, Gareth, 2017. "Multi yield curve stress-testing framework incorporating temporal and cross tenor structural dependencies," Bank of England working papers 655, Bank of England.
    11. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    12. Niels Gilbert, 2019. "Euro area sovereign risk spillovers before and after the ECB's OMT announcement," DNB Working Papers 636, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2018. "The re-pricing of sovereign risks following the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 39-56.
    14. repec:eee:irlaec:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:29-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:kuk:journl:v:50:y:2017:i:4:p:455-488 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji & Armin Steinbach, 2016. "The EU debt crisis: Testing and revisiting conventional legal doctrine," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 108, European Institute, LSE.
    17. Saka, Orkun, 2019. "Domestic banks as lightning rods? Home bias and information during Eurozone crisis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2019, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; Eurozone fragility; Self-fulfilling dynamics; European Central Bank; Outright Monetary Transactions;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:54:y:2015:i:c:p:168-185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.