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Granger-causality in peripheral EMU public debt markets: A dynamic approach

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  • Gómez-Puig, Marta
  • Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón

Abstract

Our research aims to analyze the possible existence of Granger-causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise Granger-causal relationship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of significant increase in Granger-causality between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instruments that capture the total national debt (domestic and foreign) in each country.

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  • Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2013. "Granger-causality in peripheral EMU public debt markets: A dynamic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4627-4649.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4627-4649
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.05.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2014. "An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 133-153.
    2. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "Causality and contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-27.
    3. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "“Financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility: a connectedness analysis”," IREA Working Papers 201508, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.
    4. Tola, Albi & Wälti, Sébastien, 2015. "Deciphering financial contagion in the euro area during the crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 108-123.
    5. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2015. "“Sovereigns and banks in the euro area: a tale of two crises”," IREA Working Papers 201504, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.
    6. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
    7. repec:ucm:wpaper:04-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Saka, Orkun & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2015. "ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 168-185.
    9. repec:eee:reveco:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:136-174 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 337-352.
    11. Eichler, Stefan, 2014. "The political determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 82-103.
    12. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:60-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:eee:ememar:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:96-115 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Unver, Mustafa & Dogru, Bulent, 2015. "The Determinants of Economic Fragility: Case of the Fragile Five Countries," MPRA Paper 68734, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    15. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," IREA Working Papers 201714, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2017.
    16. Eichler, Stefan, 2015. "How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk-Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112877, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2015. "Interdependence between the bond markets of CEEC-3 and Germany: A wavelet coherence analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 124-138.
    18. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Causes and hazards of the euro area sovereign debt crisis: Pure and fundamentals-based contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 133-147.
    19. Papafilis, Michalis-Panayiotis & Psillaki, Maria & Margaritis, Dimitris, 2015. "Interdependence between Sovereign and Bank CDS Spreads in Eurozone during the European Debt Crisis - The PSI Effect," MPRA Paper 68037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 974-989.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign bond yields; Granger-causality; Time-varying approach; Euro area; Peripheral EMU countries;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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