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“Sovereigns and banks in the euro area: a tale of two crises”

Author

Listed:
  • Marta Gómez-Puig

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Manish K. Singh

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

Abstract

This study attempts to identify and trace inter-linkages between sovereign and banking risk in the euro area. To this end, we use an indicator of banking risk in each country based on the Contingent Claim Analysis literature, and 10-year government yield spreads over Germany as a measure of sovereign risk. We apply a dynamic approach to testing for Granger causality between the two measures of risk in 10 euro area countries, allowing us to check for contagion in the form of a significant and abrupt increase in short-run causal linkages. The empirical results indicate that episodes of contagion vary considerably in both directions over time and within the different EMU countries. Significantly, we find that causal linkages tend to strengthen particularly at the time of major financial crises. The empirical evidence suggests the presence of contagion, mainly from banks to sovereigns.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2015. "“Sovereigns and banks in the euro area: a tale of two crises”," IREA Working Papers 201504, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:201504
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    Cited by:

    1. Brůha, Jan & Kočenda, Evžen, 2018. "Financial stability in Europe: Banking and sovereign risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 305-321.
    2. Bozena Chovancova & Vladimir Gvozdiak & Zoltan Rozsa & Rahman Ashiqur, 2019. "An Exposure of Commercial Banks in the Terms of an Impact of Government Bondholding with the Context of Its Risks and Implications," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 15(1), pages 173-188.
    3. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-184.
    4. Jan Brůha & Evžen Kočenda, 2018. "Bankovní sektor a státní riziko v Evropské unii [Banking Sector and Sovereign Risk in Euroepan Union]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(3), pages 366-383.
    5. Wojciech Grabowski & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, 2019. "News Releases, Credit Rating Announcements, and Anti-Crisis Measures as Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Peripheral Euro-Area Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(2), pages 149-173, April.
    6. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 974-989.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign debt crisis; banking crisis; Granger-causality; time-varying approach; “distance-to-default”; euro area. JEL classification: C22; E44; G01; G13; G21;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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