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Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series

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  • Saldías, Martín

Abstract

Based on Contingent Claims Analysis, this paper develops a method to monitor systemic risk in the European banking system. Aggregated Distance-to-Default series are generated using option prices information from systemically important banks and the STOXX Europe 600 Banks Index. These indicators provide methodological advantages in monitoring vulnerabilities in the banking system over time: (1) they capture interdependence and joint risk of distress in systemically important banks; (2) their forward-looking feature endow them with early signaling properties compared to traditional approaches in the literature and other market-based indicators; (3) they produce simultaneously smooth and informative long-term signals and quick and clear reaction to market distress and (4) they incorporate additional information through option prices about tail risk and correlation breaks, in line with recent findings in the literature.

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  • Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:9:y:2013:i:4:p:498-517
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2013.07.003
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    2. Patro, Dilip K. & Qi, Min & Sun, Xian, 2013. "A simple indicator of systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 105-116.
    3. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
    4. Gulamhussen, M.A. & Pinheiro, Carlos & Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2014. "International diversification and risk of multinational banks: Evidence from the pre-crisis period," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 30-43.
    5. Badea Irina - Raluca, 2015. "Hrm - Well-Being At Work Relation. A Case Study," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 146-154, August.
    6. Lukasz Prorokowski, 2016. "Bankrupt UK cities: PD model for credit risk in sub-sovereign sector," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(6), pages 495-528.
    7. Vallascas, Francesco & Keasey, Kevin, 2012. "Bank resilience to systemic shocks and the stability of banking systems: Small is beautiful," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1745-1776.
    8. Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2014. "Forward looking banking stress in EMU countries," Working Papers 14-10, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    9. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    10. Sum Katarzyna, 2015. "Basic Indicators of Systemic Risk in the EU Banking Sector. Implications for Banking Regulation," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 47(1), pages 36-55, September.
    11. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-184.
    12. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    13. Michael Robson, 2015. "Default Risk Among Australian Listed Corporations," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 47-54, September.
    14. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Singh, Manish K. & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2019. "The sovereign-bank nexus in peripheral euro area: Further evidence from contingent claims analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-26.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contingent Claims Analysis; Systemic risk; Banking crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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