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Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models: Application to Chile

In: Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking

  • Dale F. Gray

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Carlos J. García

    (Ilades–Universidad Alberto Hurtado)

  • Leonardo Luna

    (Transelec, Chile)

  • Jorge E. Restrepo

    (Central Bank of Chile)

This article analyzes whether market-based financial stability indicators (FSIs) should be included in monetary policy models and, if so, how.1 Since the economy and interest rates affect financial sector credit risk, and the financial sector affects the economy, this article builds a model of financial sector vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework, typically used for monetary policy analysis. More specifically, should the central bank explicitly include the financial stability indicator in its monetary policy (interest rate) reaction function? This is the most important question to be answered in this article. The alternative would be to react only indirectly to financial risk by reacting to inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) gaps, since they already include the effect that financial factors have on the economy.

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This chapter was published in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.) Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, , chapter 06, pages 159-197, 2011.
This item is provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series with number v15c06pp159-197.
Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v15c06pp159-197
Contact details of provider: Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago
Phone: (562) 670 2000
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  1. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2007. "Two Reasons Why Money and Credit May be Useful in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
  6. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
  7. Dale F. Gray & James P Walsh, 2008. "Factor Model for Stress-Testing with a Contingent Claims Model of the Chilean Banking System," IMF Working Papers 08/89, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 278, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye, 2009. "Countercyclical Macro Prudential Policies in a Supporting Role to Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 09/257, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Michael T. Gapen & Dale F. Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Yingbin Xiao, 2005. "Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims," IMF Working Papers 05/155, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 06/149, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies," Bank of England working papers 194, Bank of England.
  13. Dale F. Gray; & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2009. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 541, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Rodrigo A. Alfaro & Carmen Gloria Silva, 2008. "Volatilidad de Indices Accionarios: El caso del IPSA," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 217-233.
  15. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2006. "A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy," NBER Working Papers 12637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Martin Cihák & Ales Bulir & Sofía Bauducco, 2008. "Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability," IMF Working Papers 08/18, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Toni Gravelle, 2005. "The End; A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 05/231, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Kannan Prakash & Rabanal Pau & Scott Alasdair M., 2012. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-44, June.
  19. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe13, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  20. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
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