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Linking Financial and Macroeconomic Factors to Credit Risk Indicators of Brazilian Banks

Author

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  • Marcos Souto
  • Benjamin M. Tabak
  • Francisco Vazquez

Abstract

This study constructs a set of credit risk indicators for 39 Brazilian banks, using the Merton framework and balance sheet information on the banks’ total assets and liabilities. Despite the simplifying assumptions, the methodology captures well several stylized facts in the recent history of Brazil. In particular, it identifies deterioration in the credit risk indicators of the banking sector, following the crisis in the early 2000s. The risk indicators were regressed against a number of macro-financial variables at both individual and systemic level, showing that an increase in the system EDF, interest rates, and CDS spreads will lead to a deterioration of the individual expected default probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak & Francisco Vazquez, 2009. "Linking Financial and Macroeconomic Factors to Credit Risk Indicators of Brazilian Banks," Working Papers Series 189, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:189
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    File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps189.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    3. Michael T. Gapen & Dale F. Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Yingbin Xiao, 2005. "Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims," IMF Working Papers 05/155, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    5. Yingbin Xiao & Dale F. Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Michael T. Gapen, 2004. "The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis; Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer," IMF Working Papers 04/121, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Dale F. Gray & James P Walsh, 2008. "Factor Model for Stress-testing with a Contingent Claims Model of the Chilean Banking System," IMF Working Papers 08/89, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2012. "An Early-warning and Dynamic Forecasting Framework of Default Probabilities for the Macroprudential Policy Indicators Arsenal," BCL working papers 75, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    2. Guerra, Solange Maria & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & de Souza Penaloza, Rodrigo Andrés & de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo César, 2016. "Systemic risk measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 329-342.
    3. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2014. "A framework for tracking changes in the intensity of investment funds' systemic risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 343-368.
    4. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco de A., 2014. "Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 81-101.
    5. Souza, Sergio R.S. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Silva, Thiago C. & Guerra, Solange M., 2015. "Insolvency and contagion in the Brazilian interbank market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 431(C), pages 140-151.
    6. Marcos R Souto & Rodolphe Blavy, 2009. "Estimating Default Frequencies and Macrofinancial Linkages in the Mexican Banking Sector," IMF Working Papers 09/109, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal de Simone, 2011. "Market- and Book-Based Models of Probability of Default for Developing Macroprudential Policy Tools," BCL working papers 65, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    8. Benjamin M. Tabak & Sergio R. S. Souza & Solange M. Guerra, 2013. "Assessing Systemic Risk in the Brazilian Interbank Market," Working Papers Series 318, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2015. "Investment funds? vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," BCL working papers 95, Central Bank of Luxembourg.

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