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Contingent Liabilities and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Banking Sectors

  • Serkan Arslanalp
  • Yin Liao
Registered author(s):

This paper proposes a simple method to estimate contingent liabilities that arise from (implicit and explicit) government guarantees to the banking sector. This method allows us to construct cross-country estimates on potential costs of bank failures. Furthermore, we empirically test whether the contingent liabilities from the banking sector is a significant determinant of sovereign risk based on the data from 32 countries. Our results suggest that a 1% of GDP increase in contingent liabilities is associated with an increase in sovereign CDS spreads of 24 basis points in advanced countries and 75 basis points in emerging economies

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File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2013/432013.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2013-43.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-43
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  1. Andreas A. Jobst & Dale F. Gray, 2013. "Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis; Estimating Market-Implied Systemic Risk," IMF Working Papers 13/54, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  4. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
  5. Dale F. Gray & Elena Loukoianova & Samuel W. Malone & Cheng Hoon Lim, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework; Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 08/40, International Monetary Fund.
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