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Sovereign Asset Values and Implications for the Credit Market

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  • Posch, Peter N
  • Kalteier, Eva-Maria

Abstract

Using the contingent claim approach and market data on sovereign credit default swaps we assess the drivers of a country s risk perception. Deriving market-based asset values for a set of advanced economies we gain insights into the capital markets perspectives on sovereign creditworthiness. We find the market-based asset values to be positively influenced by debt and to be an early risk indicator for economic developments. In a cross-section analysis we identify drivers of the economic risk of countries. Clustering the countries according to their debt to asset value ratios provides further insights into the market perceptions of sovereign credit risk. For example we find the asset values of countries with higher ratios react to changes in the global equity market. Countries with a lower ratio react more to the political stability within the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Posch, Peter N & Kalteier, Eva-Maria, 2013. "Sovereign Asset Values and Implications for the Credit Market," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79986, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79986
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Keller & Peter J Kunzel & Marcos R Souto, 2007. "Measuring Sovereign Risk in Turkey; An Application of the Contingent Claims Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/233, International Monetary Fund.
    2. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "What Drives Sovereign Risk Premiums?: An Analysis of Recent Evidence from the Euro Area," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 718, OECD Publishing.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    4. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    5. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
    6. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    7. Makram El-Shagi, 2010. "The role of rating agencies in financial crises: event studies from the Asian flu," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 671-685.
    8. Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988. "The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November.
    9. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(01), pages 109-132, February.
    10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    11. Michael T. Gapen & Dale F. Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Yingbin Xiao, 2005. "Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims," IMF Working Papers 05/155, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Williams, Geoffrey, 2002. "Long-term nominal interest rates and domestic fundamentals," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 119-130.
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    Cited by:

    1. Posch, Peter N & Bowden, Roger J & Kalteier, Eva-Maria, 2014. "The financial economics of sovereign asset value: functional perspectives and market outcomes," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100439, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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