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A new country risk index for emerging markets: A stochastic dominance approach

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  • Agliardi, Elettra
  • Agliardi, Rossella
  • Pinar, Mehmet
  • Stengos, Thanasis
  • Topaloglou, Nikolas

Abstract

An optimal weighting scheme is proposed to construct economic, political and financial risk indices in emerging markets using an approach that relies on consistent tests for stochastic dominance efficiency. These tests are considered for a given risk index with respect to all possible indices constructed from a set of individual risk factors. The test statistics and the estimators are computed using mixed integer programming methods. We derive an economic, political and financial risk ranking of emerging countries. Finally, an overall risk index is constructed. One main result is that the financial risk is the leading contributor to sovereign risk in emerging markets followed by the economic and political risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Agliardi, Elettra & Agliardi, Rossella & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2012. "A new country risk index for emerging markets: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 741-761.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:5:p:741-761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2012.08.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Elettra Agliardi & Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2015. "An environmental degradation index based on stochastic dominance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 439-459, February.
    2. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "A cross-volatility index for hedging the country risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 25-41.
    3. Mehmet Pinar, 2015. "Measuring world governance: revisiting the institutions hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 747-778, March.
    4. Elettra Agliardi & Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2013. "A New Index of Environmental Quality Based on Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Working Paper series 12_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    5. Annika Westphal, 2015. "Systemic Risk in the European Union: A Network Approach to Banks’ Sovereign Debt Exposures," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 1-36, July.
    6. Agliardi, Elettra & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis, 2014. "A sovereign risk index for the Eurozone based on stochastic dominance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 375-384.
    7. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "Geographical diversification with a World Volatility Index," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 62-82.
    8. Emilian C. Miricescu & Lucian Ţâţu & Delia Cornea, 2016. "The Determinants of the Sovereign Debt Rating: Evidence for the European Union Countries," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(1), pages 175-188.
    9. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming & Li, Jianping, 2016. "Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 234-245.
    10. Jiann-jong Guo & Guo-chen Wang & Chien-hung Tung, 2014. "Do China's Outward Direct Investors Prefer Countries with High Political Risk? An International and Empirical Comparison," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(6), pages 22-43, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonparametric stochastic dominance; Mixed Integer programming; Sovereign risk; Emerging economies;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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