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A sovereign risk index for the Eurozone based on stochastic dominance

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  • Agliardi, Elettra
  • Pinar, Mehmet
  • Stengos, Thanasis

Abstract

We propose a new method to assess sovereign risk in Eurozone countries using an approach that relies on consistent tests for stochastic dominance efficiency. The test statistics and the estimators are computed using mixed integer programming methods. Our analysis is based on macroeconomic fundamentals and their importance in accounting for sovereign risk. The results suggest that net international investment position/GDP and public debt/GDP are the main contributors to country risk in the Eurozone. We also conduct ranking analysis of countries for fiscal and external trade risk. We find a positive correlation between our rankings of the most vulnerable countries and the S&P’s ratings, whereas the correlation for other countries is weaker.

Suggested Citation

  • Agliardi, Elettra & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis, 2014. "A sovereign risk index for the Eurozone based on stochastic dominance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 375-384.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:11:y:2014:i:4:p:375-384
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2014.07.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben Hmiden, Oussama & Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine, 2016. "Debt-threshold effect in sovereign credit ratings: New evidence from nonlinear panel smooth transition models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 273-278.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign risk; Eurozone; Nonparametric stochastic dominance;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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