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Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing Of Sovereigns And The Greek Financial Crisis

  • Heather D. Gibson
  • Stephen G. Hall
  • George S. Tavlas

    ()

We investigate the impact of the economic fundamentals, sovereign credit ratings, political uncertainty, and the ECB’s Securities Markets Program (SMP) on Greek sovereign spreads. Our findings show that sovereign downgrades and political uncertainty appear to have been drivers of the sharp rises in Greek sovereign spreads from 2008-9 onwards, over-and-above the impact of the economic fundamentals. Our findings also show that prior to 2008-2009, the markets failed to incorporate Greece’s deteriorating fundamentals into the price of Greek sovereigns. We demonstrate that, once markets reassessed their pricing of Greek credit risk, the change in the influence of the fundamentals came swiftly and abruptly, exhibiting overshooting characteristics. The SMP reduced spreads while it was in operation.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 13/20.

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Date of creation: Sep 2013
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:13/20
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  1. George Provopoulos, 2013. "The Greek Economy and Banking System: Recent Developments and the Way Forward," Special Conference Papers 14, Bank of Greece.
  2. Heather D. Gibson & Theodore Palivos & George S. Tavlas, 2013. "The crisis in the euro area: an analytic overview," Special Conference Papers 28, Bank of Greece.
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  4. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "The Pricing of Sovereign Risk and Contagion during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
  6. Dötz, Niko & Fischer, Christoph, 2010. "What can EMU countries' sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities during the recent financial crisis?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Anabela Carneiro & Pedro Portugal & Jose Varejao, 2013. "Catastrophic job destruction during the Portuguese economic crisis," Special Conference Papers 24, Bank of Greece.
  8. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2015. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Paper Series 1781, European Central Bank.
  9. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2012. "Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone. An Empirical Test," CAMA Working Papers 2012-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  10. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2013. "Monetary policy and banks in the euro area: the tale of two crises," Special Conference Papers 26, Bank of Greece.
  11. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2010. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Working Paper Series 1271, European Central Bank.
  12. Carneiro, Anabela & Portugal, Pedro & Varejão, José, 2013. "Catastrophic Job Destruction," IZA Discussion Papers 7670, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2012. "The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 498-516.
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  15. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2013. "How the Euro Crisis Evolved and How to Avoid Another: EMU, Fiscal Policy and Credit Ratings," CEPR Discussion Papers 9521, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  17. Mark Mink & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Contagion during the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis," DNB Working Papers 335, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  18. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
  19. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
  20. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Spread the news: The impact of news on the European sovereign bond markets during the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 83-101.
  21. John Ammer & Fang Cai, 2007. "Sovereign CDS and bond pricing dynamics in emerging markets: does the cheapest-to-deliver option matter?," International Finance Discussion Papers 912, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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