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Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing Of Sovereigns And The Greek Financial Crisis

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  • Heather D. Gibson
  • Stephen G. Hall
  • George S. Tavlas

    ()

Abstract

We investigate the impact of the economic fundamentals, sovereign credit ratings, political uncertainty, and the ECB’s Securities Markets Program (SMP) on Greek sovereign spreads. Our findings show that sovereign downgrades and political uncertainty appear to have been drivers of the sharp rises in Greek sovereign spreads from 2008-9 onwards, over-and-above the impact of the economic fundamentals. Our findings also show that prior to 2008-2009, the markets failed to incorporate Greece’s deteriorating fundamentals into the price of Greek sovereigns. We demonstrate that, once markets reassessed their pricing of Greek credit risk, the change in the influence of the fundamentals came swiftly and abruptly, exhibiting overshooting characteristics. The SMP reduced spreads while it was in operation.

Suggested Citation

  • Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2013. "Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing Of Sovereigns And The Greek Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/20, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:13/20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
    12. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
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    14. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2012. "The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 498-516.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Gente, Karine & Monsia, Frédia, 2016. "Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 123-146.
    2. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2016. "How the euro-area sovereign-debt crisis led to a collapse in bank equity prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-275.
    3. Marcell Zoltán Végh, 2014. "Has Austerity Succeeded in Ameliorating the Economic Climate? The Cases of Ireland, Cyprus and Greece," Social Sciences, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Graham Bird & Wenti Du & Thomas Willett, 2017. "Behavioral Finance and Efficient Markets: What does the Euro Crisis Tell us?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 273-295, April.
    5. Pragidis, I.C. & Aielli, G.P. & Chionis, D. & Schizas, P., 2015. "Contagion effects during financial crisis: Evidence from the Greek sovereign bonds market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 127-138.
    6. Gibson, Heather D. & Palivos, Theodore & Tavlas, George S., 2014. "The Crisis in the Euro Area: An Analytic Overview," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 233-239.
    7. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2016. "The effectiveness of the ECB's asset purchase programs of 2009 to 2012," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 45-57.
    8. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:12:p:2530-2542 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. George Provopoulos, 2013. "The Greek Economy and Banking System: Recent Developments and the Way Forward," Special Conference Papers 14, Bank of Greece.
    10. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2017. "Self-fulfilling dynamics: The interactions of sovereign spreads, sovereign ratings and bank ratings during the euro financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 371-385.
    11. Agliardi, Elettra & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis, 2014. "A sovereign risk index for the Eurozone based on stochastic dominance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 375-384.
    12. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2014. "Doom-loops: The Role of Rating Agencies in the Euro Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers in Economics 14/16, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    13. Brigitte Granville & Dominik Nagly, 2014. "Conflicting incentives for the public to support the EMU," Working Papers 50, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Business and Management, Centre for Globalisation Research.
    14. Provopoulos, George A., 2014. "The Greek Economy and Banking System: Recent Developments and the Way Forward," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 240-249.
    15. El Abed, Riadh & Zardoub, Amna, 2017. "Time varying and asymmetric effect between sovereign credit market and financial market: The asymmetric DCC model," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-97, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    16. Iordanis Kalaitzoglou & Beatrice Durgheu, 2016. "Financial growth and Economic Growth in Europe : Is the Euro Beneficial for All Countries?," Post-Print hal-00859252, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area financial crisis; sovereign spreads;

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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