IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing Of Sovereigns And The Greek Financial Crisis

  • Heather D. Gibson
  • Stephen G. Hall
  • George S. Tavlas

    ()

We investigate the impact of the economic fundamentals, sovereign credit ratings, political uncertainty, and the ECB’s Securities Markets Program (SMP) on Greek sovereign spreads. Our findings show that sovereign downgrades and political uncertainty appear to have been drivers of the sharp rises in Greek sovereign spreads from 2008-9 onwards, over-and-above the impact of the economic fundamentals. Our findings also show that prior to 2008-2009, the markets failed to incorporate Greece’s deteriorating fundamentals into the price of Greek sovereigns. We demonstrate that, once markets reassessed their pricing of Greek credit risk, the change in the influence of the fundamentals came swiftly and abruptly, exhibiting overshooting characteristics. The SMP reduced spreads while it was in operation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/repec/lec/leecon/dp13-20.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 13/20.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:13/20
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics University of Leicester, University Road. Leicester. LE1 7RH. UK
Phone: +44 (0)116 252 2887
Fax: +44 (0)116 252 2908
Web page: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics/research/discussion-papers Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1625, European Central Bank.
  2. Gibson, Heather D. & Palivos, Theodore & Tavlas, George S., 2014. "The Crisis in the Euro Area: An Analytic Overview," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 233-239.
  3. repec:ags:aaea07:387 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
  5. Vito Polito & Michael Wickens, 2013. "How the euro crisis evolved and how to avoid another: EMU, fiscal policy and credit ratings," Special Conference Papers 22, Bank of Greece.
  6. Carneiro, Anabela & Portugal, Pedro & Varejão, José, 2014. "Catastrophic job Destruction during the Portuguese Economic Crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 444-457.
  7. George Provopoulos, 2013. "The Greek Economy and Banking System: Recent Developments and the Way Forward," Special Conference Papers 14, Bank of Greece.
  8. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government Bond Risk Premiums in the EU revisited: The Impact of the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
  10. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2012. "The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 498-516.
  11. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/36, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  12. Joshua Aizenman & Michael M. Hutchison & Yothin Jinjarak, 2011. "What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk," NBER Working Papers 17407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-88, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  14. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Banks in the Euro Area: The Tale of Two Crises," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 387-400.
  15. Anabela Carneiro & Pedro Portugal & Jose Varejão, 2013. "Catastrophic Job Destruction," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  16. Bernoth, Kerstin & Hagen, Jürgen von & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2006. "Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 151, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  17. Dötz, Niko & Fischer, Christoph, 2010. "What can EMU countries' sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities during the recent financial crisis?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  18. repec:ags:aaea07:423 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2010. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Working Paper Series 1271, European Central Bank.
  20. John Ammer & Fang Cai, 2007. "Sovereign CDS and bond pricing dynamics in emerging markets: does the cheapest-to-deliver option matter?," International Finance Discussion Papers 912, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Spread the news: The impact of news on the European sovereign bond markets during the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 83-101.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:13/20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mrs. Alexandra Mazzuoccolo)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.