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Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view

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  • Dufrénot, Gilles
  • Gente, Karine
  • Monsia, Frédia

Abstract

This paper tries to identify the macro-financial imbalances that exposed the euro area countries to fiscal stress before the outbreak of the European debt crises. Contrary to conventional wisdom that interprets fiscal stress in terms of fiscal sustainability, we focus on short-term fiscal vulnerability as reflected by the conditions of debt refinancing in the sovereign bond markets. We find that market-based indicators capturing risk perceptions of sovereign debts have been influenced by the indicators defined in the European Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) and by variables of financial vulnerability. When pricing the risk of sovereign bonds, the holders of government debts take into account not only the macroeconomic imbalances but also factors such as banking distress, corporate bond risk, liquidity risks in the interbank market or the volatility of stock prices.

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  • Dufrénot, Gilles & Gente, Karine & Monsia, Frédia, 2016. "Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 123-146.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:67:y:2016:i:c:p:123-146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.04.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi & Bert Scholtens, 2016. "Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance and sovereign bond spreads: an empirical analysis of OECD countries," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01401718, HAL.
    2. repec:eee:jbfina:v:98:y:2019:i:c:p:156-169 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal vulnerability; Euro area; Leading indicators; Macro-financial imbalances; Signal models; Probit models;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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