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Financial stability indicators and public debt developments

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  • Athanasios O. Tagkalakis

    () (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

This paper investigates the inter-linkages between financial stability and fiscal policy. It analyzes the effect of selected financial stability indicators on the probability of future debt deterioration, controlling for several macroeconomic variables. We find significant evidence that a fragile banking system can put at risk public finances. Weak bank profitability, low asset quality and a weak capital base increase the fragility of the banking system, thus, raising the probability of future fiscal troubles.

Suggested Citation

  • Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2014. "Financial stability indicators and public debt developments," Working Papers 179, Bank of Greece.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:179
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    1. repec:taf:pocoec:v:28:y:2016:i:2:p:232-248 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:lus:reveco:v:68:y:2017:i:1:p:41-62:n:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dufrénot, Gilles & Gente, Karine & Monsia, Frédia, 2016. "Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 123-146.
    4. Oleg Deev & Martin Hodula, 2016. "Sovereign default risk and state-owned bank fragility in emerging markets: evidence from China and Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 232-248, April.
    5. Vasiliki MAKRI & Konstantinos PAPADATOS, 2016. "Determinants Of Loan Quality: Lessons From Greek Cooperative Banks," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 115-140, June.
    6. Unver, Mustafa & Dogru, Bulent, 2015. "The Determinants of Economic Fragility: Case of the Fragile Five Countries," MPRA Paper 68734, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    7. Thomasius, Sebastian, 2018. "Closing ranks between prevention and management of systemic crises: A proposal to couple the ESRB with the ESM," Discussion Papers 2018/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    8. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    9. Vasiliki Makri, 2015. "What Triggers Loan Losses? An Empirical Investigation of Greek Financial Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 119-143, july-Dece.
    10. repec:wsi:rpbfmp:v:20:y:2017:i:04:n:s021909151750028x is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank profitability; capital adequacy; asset quality; fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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