IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ami/journl/v15y2016i1p27-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Vasiliki Makri

    (University of Patras, Greece)

Abstract

The main objective of this article is to define which macroeconomic and accounting factors determine loan quality, hence credit risk, in Eurozone. Non Performing Loans, Loan Loss Provisions and Loan Loss Reserves are used as proxies for loan portfolio quality. Through dynamic regression techniques, the empirical analysis is carried out at both aggregate and individual bank level data, from 2000 to 2012, including booming and instability periods of European economy. The evaluation of econometric results establishes that macroeconomic environment (public debt, economic activity and inflation) and accounting variables (past loan quality, bank size, capital ratio and liquidity) influence considerably credit risk in Euro countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ami:journl:v:15:y:2016:i:1:p:27-57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://online-cig.ase.ro/RePEc/ami/articles/15_1_2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
    2. Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
    3. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2012. "The Consequences of Banking Crises for Public Debt," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 289-307, December.
    4. John R. Walter, 1991. "Loan loss reserves," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 77(Jul), pages 20-30.
    5. Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng & Chang Shu, 2005. "Macroeconomic conditions and banking performance in Hong Kong SAR: a panel data study," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 481-97, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2015. "Contribution of macroeconomic factors to the prediction of small bank failures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 25-39.
    7. Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 2013/072, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Calomiris, Charles W & Klingebiel, Daniela & Laeven, Luc, 2004. "A taxonomy of financial crisis resolution mechanisms : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3379, The World Bank.
    9. Chen, Xiaofen, 2007. "Banking deregulation and credit risk: Evidence from the EU," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 356-390, March.
    10. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Mr. Hui Tong, 2014. "Bank Size and Systemic Risk," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2014/004, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Vasiliki Makri & Athanasios Tsagkanos & Athanasios Bellas, 2014. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: The Case of Eurozone," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 193-206, March.
    12. Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, March.
    13. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    14. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2010. "The Trade Deficit and Banking Sector Results in Romania and Bulgaria," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 199-213, February.
    15. Mejra Festić & Dejan Romih, 2008. "Cyclicality of the banking sector performance and macro environment in the Czech republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(2), pages 99-117.
    16. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 2010/224, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jan Frait & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2009. "Instruments for Curbing Fluctuations in Lending over the Business Cycle," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2008/2009, chapter 0, pages 72-81, Czech National Bank.
    18. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    19. Asokan Anandarajan & Iftekhar Hasan & Cornelia McCarthy, 2007. "Use of loan loss provisions for capital, earnings management and signalling by Australian banks," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 47(3), pages 357-379, September.
    20. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
    21. Leonard I. Nakamura, 1993. "Recent research in commercial banking: information and lending," Working Papers 93-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    22. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    23. Luc Laeven & Lev Ratnovski & Hui Tong, 2014. "Bank Size and Systemic Risk," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/4, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Elijah Brewer & Cheng-Few Lee, 1985. "The association between bank stock market-based risk measures and the financial characteristics of the firm: a pooled cross-section time- series approach," Proceedings 72, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    25. Carbó-Valverde, Santiago & Marques-Ibanez, David & Rodríguez-Fernández, Francisco, 2012. "Securitization, risk-transferring and financial instability: The case of Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 80-101.
    26. Olena Havrylchyk, 2010. "A macroeconomic credit risk model for stress testing the South African banking sector," Working Papers 3579, South African Reserve Bank.
    27. Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/161, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Mr. Reinout De Bock & Mr. Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/071, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    30. Hughes, Joseph P. & Mester, Loretta J., 2013. "Who said large banks don’t experience scale economies? Evidence from a risk-return-driven cost function," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 559-585.
    31. Vasiliki Makri, 2015. "What Triggers Loan Losses? An Empirical Investigation of Greek Financial Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 119-143, july-Dece.
    32. Miss Rita Babihuga, 2007. "Macroeconomic and Financial Soundness Indicators: An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2007/115, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Domenico Curcio & Iftekhar Hasan, 2015. "Earnings and capital management and signaling: the use of loan-loss provisions by European banks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 26-50, January.
    34. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka, 2012. "The Roots of the Banking Crisis in the New EU Member States: A Panel Regression Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-40, March.
    35. Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 623-669, November.
    36. Mejra Festiæ & Sebastijan Repina, 2009. "Financial Stability in the Baltics," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 554-576, December.
    37. Vasiliki Makri & Konstantinos Papadatos, 2014. "How accounting information and macroeconomic environment determine credit risk? Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(1), pages 129-143, April.
    38. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008. "Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
    39. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    40. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    41. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    42. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    43. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2001. "Credit growth, problem loans and credit risk provisioning in Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 331-353, Bank for International Settlements.
    44. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    45. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    46. Eliana Balla & Andrew McKenna, 2009. "Dynamic provisioning: a countercyclical tool for loan loss reserves," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Fall), pages 383-418.
    47. Rinaldi, Laura & Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia, 2006. "Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 570, European Central Bank.
    48. Brookes, Martin & Dicks, Mike & Pradhan, Mahmood, 1994. "An empirical model of mortgage arrears and repossessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-144, April.
    49. Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana, 2010. "Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2255-2264, September.
    50. Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2014. "Financial stability indicators and public debt developments," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 158-179.
    51. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    52. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    53. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank.
    54. John H. Boyd & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The role of large banks in the recent U.S. banking crisis," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 18(Win), pages 2-21.
    55. Cihák, Martin & Schaeck, Klaus, 2010. "How well do aggregate prudential ratios identify banking system problems?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 130-144, September.
    56. Cragg, John G, 1983. "More Efficient Estimation in the Presence of Heteroscedasticity of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 751-763, May.
    57. Marcello Bofondi & Tiziano Ropele, 2011. "Macroeconomic determinants of bad loans: evidence from Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 89, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    58. Fonseca, Ana Rosa & González, Francisco, 2008. "Cross-country determinants of bank income smoothing by managing loan-loss provisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 217-228, February.
    59. Khemraj, Tarron & Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2009. "The determinants of non-performing loans: an econometric case study of Guyana," MPRA Paper 53128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    60. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    61. Desmet, Klaus, 2000. "Accounting for the Mexican banking crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 165-181, September.
    62. Shrieves, Ronald E. & Dahl, Drew, 1992. "The relationship between risk and capital in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 439-457, April.
    63. Sarawan Angklomkliew & Jason George & Frank Packer, 2009. "Issues and developments in loan loss provisioning: the case of Asia," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    64. Abdelkader Boudriga & Neila Boulila Taktak & Sana Jellouli, 2009. "Banking supervision and nonperforming loans: a cross‐country analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(4), pages 286-318, November.
    65. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    66. Saibal Ghosh, 2005. "Does leverage influence banks' non-performing loans? Evidence from India," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 913-918.
    67. Markus Arpa & Irene Giulini & Andreas Ittner & Franz Pauer, 2001. "The influence of macroeconomic developments on Austrian banks: implications for banking supervision," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 91-116, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiaowo Wu & Jiangwei Tu & Boru Liu & Xi Zhou & Yanxiong Wu, 2022. "Credit Risk Evaluation of Forest Farmers under Internet Crowdfunding Mode: The Case of China’s Collective Forest Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Changjun Zheng & Shiying Chen & Zhenhuan Dong, 2021. "Economic Fluctuation, Local Government Bond Risk and Risk-Taking of City Commercial Banks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-26, September.
    3. Vasiliki MAKRI & Konstantinos PAPADATOS, 2016. "Determinants Of Loan Quality: Lessons From Greek Cooperative Banks," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 115-140, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vasiliki Makri, 2015. "What Triggers Loan Losses? An Empirical Investigation of Greek Financial Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 119-143, july-Dece.
    2. Vasiliki MAKRI & Konstantinos PAPADATOS, 2016. "Determinants Of Loan Quality: Lessons From Greek Cooperative Banks," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 115-140, June.
    3. Florian Manz, 2019. "Determinants of non-performing loans: What do we know? A systematic review and avenues for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 351-389, November.
    4. Gulati, Rachita & Goswami, Anju & Kumar, Sunil, 2019. "What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 42-62.
    5. Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 623-669, November.
    6. Vasiliki Makri & Konstantinos Papadatos, 2014. "How accounting information and macroeconomic environment determine credit risk? Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(1), pages 129-143, April.
    7. Maryem Naili & Younes Lahrichi, 2022. "The determinants of banks' credit risk: Review of the literature and future research agenda," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 334-360, January.
    8. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    9. Louhichi, Awatef & Boujelbene, Younes, 2016. "Credit risk, managerial behaviour and macroeconomic equilibrium within dual banking systems: Interest-free vs. interest-based banking industries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 104-121.
    10. Imad Jabbouri & Maryem Naili, 2020. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the MENA Region," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-33, February.
    11. Us, Vuslat, 2017. "Dynamics of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector by an ownership breakdown: The impact of the global crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-117.
    12. Tajik, Mohammad & Aliakbari, Saeideh & Ghalia, Thaana & Kaffash, Sepideh, 2015. "House prices and credit risk: Evidence from the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-135.
    13. Teodor Hada & Nicoleta Bărbuță-Mișu & Iulia Cristina Iuga & Dorin Wainberg, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Nonperforming Loans of Romanian Banks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    14. Saom Shawleen Anita & Nishat Tasnova & Nousheen Nawar, 2022. "Are non-performing loans sensitive to macroeconomic determinants? an empirical evidence from banking sector of SAARC countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Gamze Öztürk DANIŞMAN, 2018. "Determinants of Bank Stability: A Financial Statement Analysis of Turkish Banks," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(38).
    16. Chaibi, Hasna & Ftiti, Zied, 2015. "Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-16.
    17. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    18. Koju Laxmi & Wang Shouyang & Abbas Ghulam, 2018. "Do Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Vary with the Income Levels of Countries?," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(6), pages 512-531, December.
    19. Love, Inessa & Turk Ariss, Rima, 2014. "Macro-financial linkages in Egypt: A panel analysis of economic shocks and loan portfolio quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 158-181.
    20. Md. Shahidul Islam & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2017. "Is this adverse selection or something else to determine the non-performing loans? Dynamic panel evidence from South Asian countries," Discussion Papers 1723, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; loan quality; non performing loans; loan loss provisions; loan loss reserves; accounting factors and macroeconomic factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ami:journl:v:15:y:2016:i:1:p:27-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cristina Tartavulea (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.