IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ami/journl/v15y2016i1p27-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Vasiliki Makri

    () (University of Patras, Greece)

Abstract

The main objective of this article is to define which macroeconomic and accounting factors determine loan quality, hence credit risk, in Eurozone. Non Performing Loans, Loan Loss Provisions and Loan Loss Reserves are used as proxies for loan portfolio quality. Through dynamic regression techniques, the empirical analysis is carried out at both aggregate and individual bank level data, from 2000 to 2012, including booming and instability periods of European economy. The evaluation of econometric results establishes that macroeconomic environment (public debt, economic activity and inflation) and accounting variables (past loan quality, bank size, capital ratio and liquidity) influence considerably credit risk in Euro countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ami:journl:v:15:y:2016:i:1:p:27-57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cig.ase.ro/articles/15_1_2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
    2. Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng & Chang Shu, 2005. "Macroeconomic conditions and banking performance in Hong Kong SAR: a panel data study," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 481-97 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2015. "Contribution of macroeconomic factors to the prediction of small bank failures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 25-39.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    5. Mejra Festić & Dejan Romih, 2008. "Cyclicality of the banking sector performance and macro environment in the Czech republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2008(2), pages 99-117.
    6. Asokan Anandarajan & Iftekhar Hasan & Cornelia McCarthy, 2007. "Use of loan loss provisions for capital, earnings management and signalling by Australian banks," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 47(3), pages 357-379.
    7. Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 11/161, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Carbó-Valverde, Santiago & Marques-Ibanez, David & Rodríguez-Fernández, Francisco, 2012. "Securitization, risk-transferring and financial instability: The case of Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 80-101.
    9. Domenico Curcio & Iftekhar Hasan, 2015. "Earnings and capital management and signaling: the use of loan-loss provisions by European banks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 26-50, January.
    10. Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 623-669, November.
    11. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    12. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    13. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    15. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    16. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    17. Eliana Balla & Andrew McKenna, 2009. "Dynamic provisioning: a countercyclical tool for loan loss reserves," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 383-418.
    18. Rinaldi, Laura & Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia, 2006. "Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 570, European Central Bank.
    19. Brookes, Martin & Dicks, Mike & Pradhan, Mahmood, 1994. "An empirical model of mortgage arrears and repossessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-144, April.
    20. Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2014. "Financial stability indicators and public debt developments," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 158-179.
    21. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 415-429, May.
    22. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    23. Cihák, Martin & Schaeck, Klaus, 2010. "How well do aggregate prudential ratios identify banking system problems?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 130-144, September.
    24. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    25. Shrieves, Ronald E. & Dahl, Drew, 1992. "The relationship between risk and capital in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 439-457, April.
    26. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    27. Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana, 2010. "Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2255-2264, September.
    28. Abdelkader Boudriga & Neila Boulila Taktak & Sana Jellouli, 2009. "Banking supervision and nonperforming loans: a cross-country analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 1(4), pages 286-318, November.
    29. Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE; Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 13/72, International Monetary Fund.
    30. John R. Walter, 1991. "Loan loss reserves," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jul, pages 20-30.
    31. Chen, Xiaofen, 2007. "Banking deregulation and credit risk: Evidence from the EU," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 356-390, March.
    32. Raphael A Espinoza & Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 10/224, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Vasiliki Makri & Athanasios Tsagkanos & Athanasios Bellas, 2014. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: The Case of Eurozone," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 193-206, March.
    34. Jan Frait & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2009. "Instruments for Curbing Fluctuations in Lending over the Business Cycle," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2008/2009, chapter 0, pages 72-81 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    35. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    36. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
    37. Leonard I. Nakamura, 1993. "Recent research in commercial banking: information and lending," Working Papers 93-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    38. Cheng Few Lee & Elijah Brewer, 1985. "The association between bank stock market-based risk measures and the financial characteristics of the firm: a pooled cross-section time- series approach," Proceedings 72, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    39. Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
    40. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    41. Vasiliki Makri, 2015. "What Triggers Loan Losses? An Empirical Investigation of Greek Financial Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 119-143, july-Dece.
    42. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka, 2012. "The Roots of the Banking Crisis in the New EU Member States: A Panel Regression Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-40, March.
    43. Mejra Festiæ & Sebastijan Repina, 2009. "Financial Stability in the Baltics," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 554-576, December.
    44. Vasiliki Makri & Konstantinos Papadatos, 2014. "How accounting information and macroeconomic environment determine credit risk? Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 129-143, April.
    45. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008. "Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
    46. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    47. John H. Boyd & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The role of large banks in the recent U.S. banking crisis," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-21.
    48. Cragg, John G, 1983. "More Efficient Estimation in the Presence of Heteroscedasticity of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 751-763, May.
    49. Marcello Bofondi & Tiziano Ropele, 2011. "Macroeconomic determinants of bad loans: evidence from Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 89, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    50. Fonseca, Ana Rosa & González, Francisco, 2008. "Cross-country determinants of bank income smoothing by managing loan-loss provisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 217-228, February.
    51. Reinout De Bock & Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets; Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 12/71, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Desmet, Klaus, 2000. "Accounting for the Mexican banking crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 165-181, September.
    53. Sarawan Angklomkliew & Jason George & Frank Packer, 2009. "Issues and developments in loan loss provisioning: the case of Asia," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    54. Saibal Ghosh, 2005. "Does leverage influence banks' non-performing loans? Evidence from India," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 913-918.
    55. Rita Babihuga, 2007. "Macroeconomic and Financial Soundness Indicators; An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 07/115, International Monetary Fund.
    56. Markus Arpa & Irene Giulini & Andreas Ittner & Franz Pauer, 2001. "The influence of macroeconomic developments on Austrian banks: implications for banking supervision," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 91-116 Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vasiliki MAKRI & Konstantinos PAPADATOS, 2016. "Determinants Of Loan Quality: Lessons From Greek Cooperative Banks," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 115-140, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; loan quality; non performing loans; loan loss provisions; loan loss reserves; accounting factors and macroeconomic factors;

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ami:journl:v:15:y:2016:i:1:p:27-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cristina Tartavulea). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.